Padres

2026

#9 of 30Strong· .530 true win%· modeled team strength

Record

70-60 .538

xRecord · simulator

66-64 +3.8 vs expected

Grade · runs scored / allowed

OffenseD·PitchingB

Snapshot

Record, run differential and luck

Identity

Padres70-60

Offense: Strong quality, average contact. Pitching: Strong quiet contact, weak strikeouts.

Run differential

+9 run diff

Score 4.3/g, allow 4.2/g — run prevention carries them.

Sim vs. results

3.8 wins above expected

The simulator expected 66.2 wins from their game-by-game play; they have 70.

Team identity

Rank of 30 on empirical rates

Offense style

Ground-ball lineup

How this lineup attacks — direction, trajectory, and contact quality against the other 29 teams. Style, not skill.

Pull rate40.4% · 13th of 30 · Balanced spray

34.6%43.4%

Fly-ball rate21.6% · 25th of 30 · Ground-based

19.7%26.4%

Barrel rate7.4% · 10th of 30 · Average thump

5.4%8.8%

Padresone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter, with a 50% probable range

Balanced: the top 3 hitters account for +348 bases above replacement; the other 15 combine for +499.

Every hitter, ranked by contact quality (EB/PA)

← WorseBetter →

Lg avg
(0.438)

0.3540.4410.5280.6140.701

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.701)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Will Wagner (22.2%)HR% Eduardo Valencia (9.5%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% across the bottom, HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few plate appearances to rank (3):

Pitchers

Every pitcher, with a 50% probable range

Top-heavy: the top 3 pitchers account for +53 bases above replacement; the other 16 combine for −76.

Every pitcher, ranked by run prevention (xEB/PA)

← BetterWorse →

Lg avg
(0.456)

0.3530.3950.4370.4780.520

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.364)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.3%)HR% allowed Mason Miller (0.0%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts recorded).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% allowed across the bottom, HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few batters faced to rank (3):

Season value

Every bat and arm on one bases-above-replacement scale

+824

bases above replacement · 17th of 30 teams · from 18 hitters and 19 pitchers

Who carried the team

Hitters create bases, pitchers prevent them — one roster on one replacement scale.

Above replacement

Fernando Tatis Jr. Hitter

Xander Bogaerts Hitter

Jackson Merrill Hitter

Ty France Hitter

Ramón Laureano Hitter

Jake Cronenworth Hitter

Luis Campusano Hitter

Adrian Morejon Starter

Below replacement

Germán Márquez Reliever

-22

Lucas Giolito Reliever

-17

Yuki Matsui Reliever

-15

Ron Marinaccio Starter

-9

David Morgan Reliever

-7

JP Sears Reliever

-5

How to read this chart

Every hitter's bat and every pitcher's arm, both measured against a freely-available replacement. The tag marks the role (Hitter / Starter / Reliever).
Modeled (shrunk) rates, like the boards above — a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total sums the whole roster; this board shows the biggest movers. Click a name for their page.

Recent games

The team's last 10 games. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Padres games →