David Morgan
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Morgan has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.461 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 37th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (86th percentile). The soft spot is Command (16th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
105 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with David Morgan.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| David Morgan | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .451 | .528 | 37th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 16th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 65th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
David Morgan mixes his four-seam fastball (28%) and sinker (28%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 4.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 30% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 41 bases vs a replacement arm's 54 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.6 bases saved vs league average, across 398 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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David Morgan's pitch movement, 2026
3 of his 4 pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.482 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.461 to 0.505, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.409 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.409) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.443 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.420 to 0.465, based on 58 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.434 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 10 more bases than their contact off David Morgan earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 63 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.77 · BABIP against 0.393 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RockiesApr 12, 2026
6 BF · 4 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs MetsJun 5, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs BravesJun 24, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs RedsJun 9, 2026
8 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs DodgersJun 27, 2026
5 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · David Morgan
Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up, FB% against up, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.