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MLB Deserve-to-Win

MLB Deserve-to-Win — daily MLB game analysis

Latest games

Wed, Aug 19
Standouts from the latest games

Biggest & coldest bats(Aug 19, 2026)

Bases above replacement — the night's hottest and coldest hitters.

How to read this chart
  • Bases his contact created above a replacement-level bench hitter, over the same plate appearances.
  • Damage in fewer trips ranks higher.
  • Click a name for their page, or a bar for that night's batted balls.

Luck diagnostic(Aug 19, 2026)

Net bases above or below what each player's contact deserved.

How to read this chart
  • Batted balls only — walks and strikeouts excluded.
  • Click a name for their page, or the bar for the game.
More from the latest games(Aug 19, 2026)

Hardest-hit ball

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Lars Nootbaaroff Greg Weissert

110.5 mph

Went for a Home run.

Hardest of 683 tracked balls · night median 90.1 mph

Upset of the day

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Brewers were 67% favorites at home — and lost to the Mariners.

FinalMariners 7, Brewers 5
Deserve-to-WinMariners 56% · Brewers 31%
0%50% even100%

Pre-game probability combines Projected Wins and home-field advantage.

Luckiest hit

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Dylan Beavers

A home run worth 4 bases on contact worth just 0.66.

Expected Bases0.66 bases
Actual Bases4.00 bases

Off the bat: 102.7 mph — 0.66 est. bases, went for a home run.

Max Muncy — home run worth 4 on 1.36 est.

Javier Sanoja — home run worth 4 on 1.48 est.

Robbed

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Alex Bregman

3.92 expected · 0.00 actual

Expected Bases3.92 bases
Actual Bases0.00 bases

Worst ball: 99.1 mph · 3.55 est. bases — out

Daylen Lile — 3.90 est. bases, credited 0.00.

Jake Rogers — 4.53 est. bases, credited 1.00.

Best batted balls from the latest games
Browse all games →

Upcoming games

15 games on deck

Ranked by what's at stake and how close we expect the game to be.

Fri, Aug 21Game of the day
Braves74-5299% POBrewers78-48100% PO
Brewers 58% to winsim favorite

Two contenders, a close matchup

Thu, Aug 20
Braves74-5299% POWhite Sox65-6080% PO
Braves 52% to winsim favorite

Two contenders, a near coin-flip

Thu, Aug 20
Yankees70-55100% POOrioles61-6510% PO
Yankees 55% to winsim favorite

A near coin-flip

How these games are ranked
  • 6 marquee matchups on deck.
  • Playoff odds and the pre-game favorite come from our simulator; the schedule comes from the MLB Stats API.
  • The favorite reflects each team's season-long strength (Projected Wins), not tonight's lineups or probable pitchers.

Rest of the slate

This season

Deserve-to-Win

Standings →

Our simulator re-plays every game to estimate the wins each team earned.

Unluckiest
Tigers61-66
Deserved 10.4 more wins
Luckiest
Rays76-50
Won 14.9 more than deserved

Season leaders

Leaders →

Top three hitters by estimated bases per plate appearance. Min 50 PA.

2Juan Soto
0.644
1Aaron Judge
0.697
3Shohei Ohtani
0.642

Explore

Games→

Every game's deserve-to-win verdict

Standings→

Playoff picture & deserve-to-win

League→

Trends, team spreads & five years of context

Teams→

Quality map, luck halos & form

Hitters→

Leaderboards & skill profiles

Pitchers→

Leaderboards & skill profiles

Tools→

Interactive explorers & visualizations

Latest analysis

Longer looks at what the model is seeingAll analysis →
Analysis

Logan Gilbert Enters the Spin Zone

Logan Gilbert's four-seam fastball went from the 6th percentile in spin to league average in a single start, and nothing in his delivery explains it.July 26, 2026
Data from the MLB Stats API — scores, schedules, and pitch-level events are MLB's. The Deserve-to-Win ratings, projections, and every “luck” number are modeled here, not official MLB stats.
How it works →