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MLB Deserve-to-Win

MLB Deserve-to-Win — daily MLB game analysis

Who deserved to win: every MLB game re-simulated from the quality of the contact, not the final score.

Latest games

Sun, Oct 4
  • LUCKYthe other team deserved to win it
  • CLOSEdecided by one run
Standouts from the latest games

Biggest & coldest bats(Oct 4, 2026)

Bases above replacement — the night's hottest and coldest hitters.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
  • Bases his contact created above a replacement-level bench hitter, over the same plate appearances.
  • Damage in fewer trips ranks higher.
  • Click a name for their page, or a bar for that night's batted balls.

Luck diagnostic(Oct 4, 2026)

Net bases above or below what each player's contact deserved.

Dead even
How to read this chart
  • Batted balls only — walks and strikeouts excluded.
  • Click a name for their page, or the bar for the game.
More from the latest games(Oct 4, 2026)

Hardest-hit ball

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Garrett Mitchelloff Yuki Matsui

110.1 mph

Went for a Single.

Hardest of 95 tracked balls · night median 91.2 mph

Upset of the day

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Dodgers were 57% favorites at home — and lost to the Braves.

FinalBraves 3, Dodgers 2
Deserve-to-WinBraves 67% · Dodgers 22%
0%50% even100%

Pre-game probability combines Projected Wins and home-field advantage.

Luckiest hit

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Michael Harris II

A triple worth 3 bases on contact worth just 1.64.

Expected Bases1.64 bases
Actual Bases3.00 bases

Off the bat: 92.3 mph — 1.64 est. bases, went for a triple.

Garrett Mitchell — single worth 1 on 0.20 est.

Jackson Merrill — single worth 1 on 0.21 est.

Robbed

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Fernando Tatis Jr.

3.31 expected · 0.00 actual

Expected Bases3.31 bases
Actual Bases0.00 bases

Worst ball: 98.6 mph · 3.00 est. bases — out

Christian Yelich — 4.31 est. bases, credited 2.00.

Austin Riley — 2.12 est. bases, credited 0.00.

Best batted balls from the latest games
Browse all games →

Upcoming games

15 games on deck

Ranked by what's at stake and how close the simulator expects the game to be.

Tue, Oct 6Game of the day
Dodgers99-62100% POBraves94-67100% PO
Braves 51% to winsim favorite

Two contenders, a near coin-flip

Wed, Oct 7
Dodgers99-62100% POBraves94-67100% PO
Braves 51% to winsim favorite

Two contenders, a near coin-flip

Thu, Oct 8
Rays98-63100% POYankees93-68100% PO
Yankees 51% to winsim favorite

Two contenders, a near coin-flip

How these games are ranked
  • 14 marquee matchups on deck.
  • Playoff odds and the pre-game favorite come from the simulator; the schedule comes from the MLB Stats API.
  • The favorite reflects each team's season-long strength (Projected Wins), not tonight's lineups or probable pitchers.

Rest of the slate

This season

Deserve-to-Win

Standings →

The simulator re-plays every game to estimate the wins each team earned.

Unluckiest
Tigers76-86
Deserved 14.3 more wins
Luckiest
Rays98-64
Won 16.9 more than deserved

Season leaders

Leaders →

Top three hitters by estimated bases per plate appearance. Min 50 PA.

2Juan Soto
0.642
1Aaron Judge
0.687
3Yordan Alvarez
0.632

Explore

Games→

Every game's deserve-to-win verdict

Standings→

Playoff picture & deserve-to-win

League→

Trends, team spreads & five years of context

Teams→

Quality map, luck halos & form

Hitters→

Who creates bases

Pitchers→

Who prevents them

AAA→

Triple-A hitters, ranked

Tools→

Interactive explorers & visualizations

Latest analysis

Longer looks at what the simulator is seeingAll analysis →
Analysis

Logan Gilbert Enters the Spin Zone

Logan Gilbert's four-seam fastball went from the 6th percentile in spin to league average in a single start, and nothing in his delivery explains it.July 26, 2026
Data from the MLB Stats API — scores, schedules, and pitch-level events are MLB's. The Deserve-to-Win ratings, projections, and every “luck” number are modeled here, not official MLB stats.
How it works →