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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rays

2026
#8 of 30Strong· .541 vs. an average team· team strength
Record
98-64 .605
xRecord · simulator
81-81 +16.9 vs expected
Grade · runs scored / allowed
OffenseC+·PitchingB+

Snapshot

Three cards cover the record, the run differential and how lucky the team has been.
Identity
Rays98-64

The offense is elite on contact and bottom-tier on quality. The pitching is elite on command and weak on HR suppression.

Run differential
+86 run diff

They score 4.5 runs a game and allow 4.0, against a league average of 4.5. The pitching is the bigger reason.

Luck
16.9 wins above expected

The simulator says their game-by-game play deserved 81.1 wins. They have 98.

Team identity

See where the team ranks among all 30 on runs and on four hitting and pitching rates.

Offense style

This lineup uses the whole field and keeps the ball on the ground.

These strips compare how this lineup hits the ball with the other 29 teams. Pull rate and fly-ball rate are a style, not a skill, but a higher barrel rate is better.

Pull rate36.9% · 29th of 30 · Uses the whole field
34.7%43.5%
Fly-ball rate20.5% · 29th of 30 · Hits it on the ground
19.4%26.0%
Barrel rate5.3% · 28th of 30 · Few barrels
5.2%8.8%
Raysone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter with 25 or more plate appearances is ranked here, with a 50% probable range.

This lineup is star-led. Its top 3 hitters account for +526 bases above replacement, and the other 12 combine for +433.

Hitters by estimated bases per plate appearance (EB/PA)

Lg median
(0.430)
  1. 1Junior Caminero702 PA0.550
  2. 2Jonathan Aranda668 PA0.503
  3. 3Yandy Díaz686 PA0.479
  4. 4Jake Fraley97 PA0.464
  5. 5Victor Mesa Jr.262 PA0.461
  6. 6Richie Palacios399 PA0.449
  7. 7Ryan Vilade278 PA0.442
  8. 8Cedric Mullins502 PA0.418
  9. 9Hunter Feduccia251 PA0.388
  10. 10Carson Williams40 PA0.374
  11. 11Nick Fortes323 PA0.371
  12. 12Ben Williamson286 PA0.369
  13. 13Jonny DeLuca370 PA0.363
  14. 14Taylor Walls433 PA0.350
  15. 15Chandler Simpson612 PA0.323
0.3070.4020.4970.5920.687
← WorseBetter →
Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.687)
How to read this chart
  • The dot is the simulator's best estimate. The bar around it covers the middle 50% of where that estimate could land. A short bar means a lot of evidence, and a long one means the sample is still thin.
  • Where two players' bars overlap, the simulator cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their ranks are.
  • The tinted halves split at the dashed league median, with the better side green and the worse side red.
  • The dashed median and the teal league-best line cover the whole league, not just these players.
  • Click any player to open his page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Davis Schneider (18.6%)HR% Hunter Goodman (7.1%)

A bigger dot means more strikeouts, which is worse for a hitter.

How to read this chart
  • Each face is one player on this roster, with BB% across the bottom and HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
  • Higher is better on both, so the best hitters sit top-right.
  • The dashed lines are the league-wide rates this season, so a corner means better or worse than the league, not than a teammate.
  • Tap a headshot to open the player.
  • The league best is named above the chart, among hitters with 50 or more plate appearances. More on the About page

2 more hitters have fewer than 25 plate appearances, too few to rank:

Pitchers

Every pitcher with 40 or more batters faced is ranked here, with a 50% probable range.

This staff is star-led. Its top 3 pitchers account for +213 bases above replacement, and the other 16 combine for +111.

Pitchers by estimated bases allowed per plate appearance (xEB/PA)

Lg median
(0.454)
  1. 1Drew Rasmussen669 BF0.392
  2. 2Kevin Kelly279 BF0.412
  3. 3Cam Booser152 BF0.413
  4. 4Ian Seymour551 BF0.437
  5. 5Bryan Baker244 BF0.438
  6. 6Shane McClanahan487 BF0.440
  7. 7Griffin Jax459 BF0.440
  8. 8Nick Martinez722 BF0.444
  9. 9Cole Sulser236 BF0.446
  10. 10Joe Boyle81 BF0.450
  11. 11Casey Legumina305 BF0.457
  12. 12Garrett Cleavinger181 BF0.459
  13. 13Hunter Bigge85 BF0.464
  14. 14Craig Kimbrel196 BF0.464
  15. 15Steven Matz342 BF0.465
  16. 16Jesse Scholtens209 BF0.481
  17. 17Mason Englert179 BF0.482
  18. 18Trevor Martin73 BF0.484
  19. 19Chris Roycroft189 BF0.499
0.3670.4040.4400.4770.514
← BetterWorse →
Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.367)
How to read this chart
  • The dot is the simulator's best estimate. The bar around it covers the middle 50% of where that estimate could land. A short bar means a lot of evidence, and a long one means the sample is still thin.
  • Where two players' bars overlap, the simulator cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their ranks are.
  • The tinted halves split at the dashed league median, with the better side green and the worse side red.
  • The dashed median and the teal league-best line cover the whole league, not just these players.
  • Click any player to open his page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.7%)HR% allowed Blake Snell (0.0%)

A bigger dot means more strikeouts, which is better for a pitcher.

How to read this chart
  • Each face is one player on this roster, with BB% allowed across the bottom and HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
  • Lower is better on both, so the best pitchers sit bottom-left.
  • The dashed lines are the league-wide rates this season, so a corner means better or worse than the league, not than a teammate.
  • Tap a headshot to open the player.
  • The league best is named above the chart, among pitchers with 100 or more batters faced. More on the About page

8 more pitchers have fewer than 40 batters faced, too few to rank:

Season value

This puts every ranked hitter and pitcher on one scale, bases above replacement.
+1284
bases above replacement · 18th of 30 teams · from 15 hitters and 19 pitchers

Who carried the team

Bars to the right helped the team more than a replacement player would have.

Above replacement
Below replacement
Replacement level
How to read this chart
  • Each bar is one hitter's bat or one pitcher's arm, measured in bases above or below a freely available replacement player. Longer to the right is better. The tag marks the role: Hitter, Starter or Reliever.
  • The rates behind each bar are the simulator's estimates, the same ones the rankings above use, and a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
  • The total adds up the whole roster, while this board shows the 10 biggest gains and the 6 biggest drags. Click a name for his page.

Recent games

Recent games

These are the team's last 10 games. Playoff games are included and tagged Postseason. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Rays games →