Rays

2026

#10 of 30Strong· .520 true win%· modeled team strength

Record

77-53 .592

xRecord · simulator

62-68 +14.9 vs expected

Grade · runs scored / allowed

OffenseC·PitchingB

Snapshot

Record, run differential and luck

Identity

Rays77-53

Offense: Elite contact, bottom-tier quality. Pitching: Elite command, weak hr suppression.

Run differential

+44 run diff

Score 4.5/g, allow 4.2/g — run prevention carries them.

Sim vs. results

14.9 wins above expected

The simulator expected 62.1 wins from their game-by-game play; they have 77.

Team identity

Rank of 30 on empirical rates

Offense style

Oppo-leaning ground-ball lineup

How this lineup attacks — direction, trajectory, and contact quality against the other 29 teams. Style, not skill.

Pull rate36.4% · 29th of 30 · Oppo-leaning

34.6%43.4%

Fly-ball rate20.5% · 29th of 30 · Ground-based

19.7%26.4%

Barrel rate5.4% · 29th of 30 · Contact-first

5.4%8.8%

Raysone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter, with a 50% probable range

Star-led: the top 3 hitters account for +405 bases above replacement; the other 12 combine for +288.

Every hitter, ranked by contact quality (EB/PA)

← WorseBetter →

Lg avg
(0.438)

0.3130.4100.5070.6040.701

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.701)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Will Wagner (22.2%)HR% Eduardo Valencia (9.5%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% across the bottom, HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few plate appearances to rank (2):

Pitchers

Every pitcher, with a 50% probable range

Top-heavy: the top 3 pitchers account for +108 bases above replacement; the other 16 combine for −6.

Every pitcher, ranked by run prevention (xEB/PA)

← BetterWorse →

Lg avg
(0.456)

0.3640.4040.4430.4830.523

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.364)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.3%)HR% allowed Mason Miller (0.0%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts recorded).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% allowed across the bottom, HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few batters faced to rank (5):

Season value

Every bat and arm on one bases-above-replacement scale

+795

bases above replacement · 22nd of 30 teams · from 15 hitters and 19 pitchers

Who carried the team

Hitters create bases, pitchers prevent them — one roster on one replacement scale.

Above replacement

Junior Caminero Hitter

167

Jonathan Aranda Hitter

129

Yandy Díaz Hitter

109

Richie Palacios Hitter

Cedric Mullins Hitter

Drew Rasmussen Starter

Ryan Vilade Hitter

Nick Martinez Starter

Victor Mesa Jr. Hitter

Taylor Walls Hitter

Below replacement

Chris Roycroft Reliever

-12

Craig Kimbrel Reliever

-10

Jesse Scholtens Reliever

-9

Garrett Cleavinger Reliever

-8

Hunter Bigge Reliever

-8

Chandler Simpson Hitter

-4

How to read this chart

Every hitter's bat and every pitcher's arm, both measured against a freely-available replacement. The tag marks the role (Hitter / Starter / Reliever).
Modeled (shrunk) rates, like the boards above — a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total sums the whole roster; this board shows the biggest movers. Click a name for their page.

Recent games

The team's last 10 games. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Rays games →