Ian Seymour
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Seymour sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.445 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 64th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (91st percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (15th percentile).
421 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Ian Seymour.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Ian Seymour | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .602 | .528 | 64th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 68th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 27% | 22% | 91st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Ian Seymour mixes his changeup (30%) and four-seam fastball (28%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 191 bases vs a replacement arm's 234 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
2.0 bases saved vs league average, across 1,621 pitches — 0.1 per 100.
Rarely used: curveball, cutter (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Ian Seymour's pitch movement, 2026
His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 4 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.408 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.390 to 0.426, based on 149 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.495 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.495) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.445 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.427 to 0.463, based on 273 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.439 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Ian Seymour earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 262 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.17 · WHIP 1.14 · BABIP against 0.271 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RoyalsJun 25, 2026
21 BF · 7 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 3.6
- Above replacement
- +8.1
- vs RangersJul 29, 2026
17 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.8
- Above replacement
- +5.7
- vs Blue JaysJul 23, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.2
- Above replacement
- +4.6
- vs YankeesJul 7, 2026
21 BF · 12 K, 5 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 7.0
- Above replacement
- +4.6
- vs MarinersAug 9, 2026
25 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 10.5
- Above replacement
- +3.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Ian Seymour
HR allowed% up, K% up, Barrel% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.