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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Joe Boyle

2026
Rays· RHP · throws R· 19.0 IP· 5.21 ERA· 1.16 WHIP· 81 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
C+better than 53% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterMixed Profile

A blend of skills without one defining trait.

Boyle sits right around league average

The simulator expects 0.452 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 53rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (83rd percentile). The soft spot is Command (22nd percentile).

81 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Jordan RomanoRockiesRyan FernandezCardinalsGraham AshcraftRedsAlex McFarlanePhillies

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.8%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Joe BoyleLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).506.52753rd
Walk rate(lower = better)11%9%22nd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)23%22%67th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Joe Boyle mixes his slider (32%) and four-seam fastball (22%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 1.4 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his slider runs 2.1 mph above the league norm.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+9 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 34 bases vs a replacement arm's 43 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

0.3 bases cost vs league average, across 304 pitches — 0.1 per 100.

Slider
32%
89.0 mph · RHP median 86.9
23% whiffs · Lg median 33%
saved 0.9 per 1001.0 total
Four-Seam Fastball
22%
97.3 mph · RHP median 95.1
27% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 1.7 per 1001.3 total
Sinker
19%
97.3 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
saved 1.4 per 1000.9 total
Splitter
14%
92.5 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
cost 1.8 per 1000.9 total
Sweeper
not charted
12%
84.9 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—

His sweeper isn't in the charts below — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Slider
34% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
30% vs RHH · RHP median 30%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 208 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sweeper isn't in these charts — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051

vs LHB44 PA0.432

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.432 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.410 to 0.453, based on 44 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.437 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB38 PA0.389

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.389 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.367 to 0.411, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.396 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.3560.3840.4110.4390.466
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Joe Boyle landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Michael ConfortoDouble
EV 105 mph · LA 29° · EB 2.9
04/08 vs Cubs
vs Jordan WalkerOutRobbed
EV 104 mph · LA 30° · EB 2.4
03/28 vs Cardinals
vs Carson KellyDouble
EV 108 mph · LA 12° · EB 1.9
04/08 vs Cubs
vs Josh BellDouble
EV 69 mph · LA 28° · EB 1.5
04/03 vs Twins
vs Trevor LarnachDouble
EV 99 mph · LA 23° · EB 1.5
04/03 vs Twins

Luck check

Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.

vs Jordan WalkerOutRobbed
EV 104 mph · LA 30° · EB 2.4
03/28 vs Cardinals

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Christian Encarnacion-StrandDoubleCheap hit
EV 87 mph · LA -11° · EB 0.3 · xBA .178
08/16 vs Orioles
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Joe Boyle.

Earned off his contact allowed25
Actually credited to batters21

over 50 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 5.21 · WHIP 1.16 · BABIP against 0.225 (Lg median 0.287)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Joe Boyle

HR allowed% down, BB% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against down, Pull% against down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.