Ryan Helsley

2026

Orioles· RHP · throws R· 15.1 IP· 4.11 ERA· 1.43 WHIP· 68 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

B+79th percentile run prevention

RelieverStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Helsley is comfortably above average at preventing runs

The simulator expects 0.414 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 79th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (95th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (7th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
68 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Ryan Helsley leans on his four-seam fastball (45% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 1.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 3.6 mph above the league norm.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+7 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 27 bases vs a replacement arm's 34 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

saved 0.2 per 1000.4 saved across 229

Four-Seam Fastball

45%

98.7 mph · lg 95.1 −0.6 mph vs '25

30% whiffs · lg 18%

cost 1.3 per 1001.6 cost across 123

Slider

39% −9 pts vs '25

87.9 mph · lg 86.9 −1.0 mph vs '25

37% whiffs · lg 32%

saved 1.8 per 1002.0 saved across 106

Splitter

12%

90.1 mph · lg 86.8

—

Curveball

4% −2 pts vs '25

81.5 mph · lg 81.6 +0.8 mph vs '25

—

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

50% vs LHH

36% vs RHH

Slider

25% vs LHH

63% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB48 PA0.394

vs RHB21 PA0.353

0.3200.3480.3760.4050.433

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.049

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Ryan Helsley landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Cole YoungHome run

EV 102 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.8

06/17 vs Mariners

vs Dominic CanzoneHome run

EV 102 mph · LA 39° · EB 3.6

06/17 vs Mariners

vs Mookie BettsHome run

EV 101 mph · LA 38° · EB 1.8

06/19 vs Dodgers

vs Luke KeaschallSingle

EV 87 mph · LA 14° · EB 1.0

03/29 vs Twins

vs Nick YorkeDouble

EV 105 mph · LA 14° · EB 0.9

04/04 vs Pirates

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Jorbit VivasSingleCheap hit

EV 48 mph · LA -77° · EB 0.2 · xBA .163

06/27 vs Nationals

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Jun 27, 2026	Nationals	5 BF · 1 K, 2 H	0.6	+1.9
Mar 26, 2026	Twins	4 BF · 3 K, 1 H	0.3	+1.8
Jun 24, 2026	Angels	3 BF · 2 K	0.1	+1.4
Apr 15, 2026	D-backs	3 BF · 2 K	0.1	+1.4
Jun 26, 2026	Nationals	3 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.4