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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Steven Matz

2026
Rays· LHP · throws L· 80.1 IP· 5.49 ERA· 1.23 WHIP· 342 batters faced
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Dbetter than 30% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Matz has been below average at limiting bases

The simulator expects him to allow 0.465 bases per batter faced, better than 30% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting hard contact (76th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting home runs (10th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 342 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Steven Matz.

Adrian HouserGiantsJP SearsPadresTyler PhillipsMarlinsConnor SeaboldRoyals

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Limits hard contact, pitches to contact” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Steven MatzLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).553.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)8%9%75th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)19%22%19th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Steven Matz leans on his sinker (50% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+11 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 167 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 178 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 12.6 bases against league average across 1,345 pitches, or 0.9 per 100 pitches.

Sinker
50%
93.6 mph · LHP median 92.9
19% whiffs · Lg median 13%
cost 0.7 per 1004.8 total
Changeup
28%
83.0 mph · LHP median 85.1
23% whiffs · Lg median 30%
cost 2.9 per 10011.1 total
Curveball
13%
78.7 mph · LHP median 79.9
28% whiffs · Lg median 29%
saved 2.6 per 1004.5 total
Slider
9%
82.4 mph · LHP median 85.6
17% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 1.1 per 1001.2 total
How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Sinker
59% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
46% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Changeup
17% vs LHH · LHP median 14%
34% vs RHH · LHP median 32%
Curveball
11% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
14% vs RHH · LHP median 17%
Slider
13% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
7% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 26 and 111 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Steven Matz's pitch movement, 2026

3 of his 4 pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Steven Matz's pitch movement, 2026-12012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SinkerSI
Rise 9.2 in
+0.9 vs Lg median
Break 16.8 in
+1.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
ChangeupCH
Rise 1.2 in
−2.9 vs Lg median
Break 15.8 in
+1.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CurveballCU
Rise −12.3 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Break −14.0 in
−5.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
SliderSL
Rise −6.7 in
−8.5 vs Lg median
Break −11.8 in
−8.1 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.040 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049

vs LHB119 PA0.441

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.441 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.422 to 0.459, based on 119 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.375 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.375) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB223 PA0.481

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.481 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.463 to 0.498, based on 223 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.551 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.551) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4130.4360.4600.4840.508
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Steven Matz this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs George Lombard Jr.Home run
110 mph · 36° · worth 3.9 bases
09/24 vs Yankees
vs Kazuma OkamotoHome run
107 mph · 28° · worth 3.9 bases
08/18 vs Blue Jays
vs Gleyber TorresHome run
106 mph · 27° · worth 3.8 bases
06/02 vs Tigers
vs Jordan WalkerHome run
106 mph · 27° · worth 3.8 bases
03/29 vs Cardinals
vs Gunnar HendersonHome run
102 mph · 37° · worth 3.7 bases
05/27 vs Orioles

Luck check

2 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Munetaka MurakamiOutLucky out
111 mph · 19° · worth 1.5 bases
04/16 vs White Sox
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Steven Matz deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed141
Actually credited to batters138

Both bars count 254 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 5.49 · WHIP 1.23 · BABIP against 0.247 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Steven Matz

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up, his Barrel% against is up, his Hard-hit% against is down, his GB% against is down, his FB% against is up and his Pull% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.