Steven Matz
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Matz is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 21st percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (74th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (6th percentile).
282 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Steven Matz.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Steven Matz | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .582 | .528 | 21st |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 71st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 19th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Steven Matz leans on his sinker (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 0.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 145 bases vs a replacement arm's 157 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
17.5 bases cost vs league average, across 1,114 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Steven Matz's pitch movement, 2026
His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 3 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.447 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.428 to 0.466, based on 95 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.399 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.399) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.487 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.469 to 0.507, based on 187 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.573 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.573) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Steven Matz.
over 210 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.17 · WHIP 1.29 · BABIP against 0.255 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TwinsApr 4, 2026
22 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.5
- Above replacement
- +6.8
- vs OriolesMay 20, 2026
17 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.8
- Above replacement
- +4.7
- vs YankeesApr 10, 2026
20 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 2 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 6.7
- Above replacement
- +4.5
- vs GiantsMay 3, 2026
22 BF · 1 K, 2 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.5
- Above replacement
- +3.8
- vs GuardiansApr 27, 2026
25 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 4 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 11.7
- Above replacement
- +2.2
Trends
Multi-season trends · Steven Matz
HR allowed% up, BB% up, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.