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Steven Matz

2026
Rays· LHP · throws L· 65.2 IP· 6.17 ERA· 1.29 WHIP· 282 BF
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Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 21% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Matz is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 21st percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (74th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (6th percentile).

282 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 464 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Steven Matz.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Steven MatzLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).582.52821st
Walk rate(lower = better)8%9%71st
Strikeout rate(higher = better)19%22%19th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Steven Matz leans on his sinker (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 0.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+12 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 145 bases vs a replacement arm's 157 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

17.5 bases cost vs league average, across 1,114 pitches — 1.6 per 100.

Sinker
49%
93.4 mph · LHP median 93.1
19% whiffs · Lg median 13%
cost 1.3 per 1006.9 total
Changeup
30%
82.9 mph · LHP median 85.0
25% whiffs · Lg median 30%
cost 3.2 per 10010.6 total
Curveball
12%
78.7 mph · LHP median 79.9
25% whiffs · Lg median 29%
saved 0.9 per 1001.1 total
Slider
9%
82.4 mph · LHP median 85.8
17% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 1.0 per 1001.1 total
How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Sinker
58% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
45% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Changeup
17% vs LHH · LHP median 16%
35% vs RHH · LHP median 32%
Curveball
11% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
12% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
Slider
14% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
7% vs RHH · LHP median 19%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 23 and 103 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Steven Matz's pitch movement, 2026

His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 3 have not.

Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.

Steven Matz's pitch movement, 2026012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SinkerSI
Rise 10.0 in
+1.7 vs Lg median
Break 16.8 in
+1.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
ChangeupCH
Rise −0.4 in
−4.4 vs Lg median
Break 14.1 in
0.0 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CurveballCU
Rise −9.6 in
+0.5 vs Lg median
Break −11.4 in
−2.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SliderSL
Rise −2.3 in
−4.1 vs Lg median
Break −9.5 in
−5.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.049

vs LHB95 PA0.447

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.447 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.428 to 0.466, based on 95 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.399 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.399) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB187 PA0.487

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.487 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.469 to 0.507, based on 187 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.573 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.573) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4180.4430.4670.4920.516
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Steven Matz landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Steven Matz.

Earned off his contact allowed122
Actually credited to batters122

over 210 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 6.17 · WHIP 1.29 · BABIP against 0.255 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Steven Matz

HR allowed% up, BB% up, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.