Craig Kimbrel
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Kimbrel has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.465 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 33rd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (19th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
160 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Craig Kimbrel.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Craig Kimbrel | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .521 | .528 | 33rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 19th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 58th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Craig Kimbrel leans on his four-seam fastball (67% of pitches). His four-seam fastball has performed closest to league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 72 bases vs a replacement arm's 82 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.1 bases cost vs league average, across 592 pitches — 0.5 per 100.
His sinker and changeup aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Craig Kimbrel's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker and changeup aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.489 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.467 to 0.509, based on 85 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.548 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.548) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.448 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.426 to 0.468, based on 77 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.366 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.366) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Craig Kimbrel.
over 105 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.15 · WHIP 1.23 · BABIP against 0.257 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs NationalsApr 28, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs OriolesMay 26, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs AstrosJul 4, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +1.2
- vs NationalsMay 18, 2026
5 BF · 0 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +1.2
- vs Blue JaysJul 21, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.1
Trends
Multi-season trends · Craig Kimbrel
HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.