Kevin Kelly
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Kelly is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.416 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 90th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (99th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (10th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
219 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Kevin Kelly.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Kevin Kelly | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .422 | .528 | 90th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 5% | 9% | 99th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 38th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Kevin Kelly leans on his sinker (59% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 79 bases vs a replacement arm's 112 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
18.9 bases saved vs league average, across 719 pitches — 2.6 per 100.
His four-seam fastball isn't in the charts below — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Rarely used: cutter (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Kevin Kelly's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His four-seam fastball isn't in these charts — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.446 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.427 to 0.467, based on 100 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.428 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.405 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.386 to 0.427, based on 120 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.314 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.314) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 6 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 5 fewer bases than their contact off Kevin Kelly earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 161 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.15 · WHIP 0.87 · BABIP against 0.231 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs AstrosJul 3, 2026
5 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs TwinsApr 25, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs GiantsMay 2, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs MarinersJul 10, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs AngelsJun 14, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +1.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Kevin Kelly
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, BB% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up, FB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.