JP Sears
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Sears has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.464 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 33rd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (11th percentile).
143 batters faced · data through 2026-08-23.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with JP Sears.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| JP Sears | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .547 | .527 | 33rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 62nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 23rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
JP Sears mixes his four-seam fastball (34%) and changeup (21%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 2.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 69 bases vs a replacement arm's 80 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
2.2 bases cost vs league average, across 518 pitches — 0.4 per 100.
Rarely used: cutter (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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JP Sears's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.447 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.426 to 0.469, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.537 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.459 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.537) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.484 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.463 to 0.506, based on 96 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.459 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.441 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off JP Sears.
over 103 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.68 · WHIP 1.35 · BABIP against 0.278 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs DodgersJul 5, 2026
17 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.2
- Above replacement
- +5.3
- vs Blue JaysJul 10, 2026
19 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.8
- Above replacement
- +4.8
- vs MarlinsJul 25, 2026
12 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.0
- Above replacement
- +4.1
- vs BravesJun 24, 2026
25 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 5 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 11.0
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs BravesJul 20, 2026
18 BF · 3 K, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 8.1
- Above replacement
- +1.9
Trends
Multi-season trends · JP Sears
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.