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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 5, 2026
Padres
5
Final
Dodgers
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Padres 58% · tied 20% · Dodgers 22%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
2
Est. bases
7.3
4.9
Total bases
12
4
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
1
0
Walks/HBP
6
6
Strikeouts
9
10
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
4
0
Left on base
9
7
Errors
0
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Padres
Dodgers
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Padres
Dodgers
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Padrespitching
JP Sears5.0 IP · 17 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
3.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.1 bases better than average on 29 pitches. 3 of his 8 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Sweeper7 thrown (9% tonight, season 14%)
+0.3 bases cost
Yuki Matsui0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.4 bases cost

About an average night — +0.4 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (43% tonight, season 37%)
+0.5 bases cost
Slider5 thrown (36% tonight, season 31%)
+0.5 bases cost
Bradgley Rodriguez0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (33% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Changeup4 thrown (22% tonight, season 42%)
+0.6 bases cost
Sinker4 thrown (22% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Adrian Morejon1.7 IP · 9 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 17 pitches. 7 of his 9 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Changeup4 thrown (11% tonight, season 22%)
+0.5 bases cost
Mason Miller1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Slider6 thrown (35% tonight, season 51%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Dodgerspitching
Emmet Sheehan4.3 IP · 19 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
2.9 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.5 bases better than average on 40 pitches. 6 of his 15 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Curveball9 thrown (9% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Jack Dreyer1.7 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Slider10 thrown (37% tonight, season 38%)
−0.2 bases saved
Kyle Hurt1.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 1.9 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Paul Gervase2.0 IP · 9 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 13 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup1 thrown
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Manny Machado hit it

Every ball Manny Machado hit this game, where it landed.

330'403'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +2.8 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA1 H3 BB0 HBP0 K102.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 4.2
PA 1 vs Emmet Sheehan: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Emmet Sheehan: walkPA 3 vs Jack Dreyer: walkPA 4 vs Kyle Hurt: home run — 1.2 deserved basesPA 5 vs Paul Gervase: walk
BB
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking50%
Fastball44%

1.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed6%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Kyle Hurt
Actual
4.0
Deserved
1.2
Emmet Sheehan
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Jack Dreyer
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Paul Gervase
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Dodger Stadium.

Padres26 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
330'403'330'
Dodgers20 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
330'403'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Dodger Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information