Jack Dreyer
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Dreyer is comfortably above average at limiting bases
The simulator expects him to allow 0.433 bases per batter faced, better than 81% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is getting strikeouts (82nd percentile). His weakest skill is limiting hard contact (26th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.
His grade rests on 261 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Jack Dreyer.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Misses bats, but gets hit hard” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)
How to read this chart
| Jack Dreyer | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .507 | .527 | — |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 51st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 82nd |
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
Jack Dreyer leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 105 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 136 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He saved 12.8 bases against league average across 1,037 pitches, or 1.2 per 100 pitches.
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Mix by batter side
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Jack Dreyer's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 2 have not.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.037 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.388 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.369 to 0.408, based on 116 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.411 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.425 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.406 to 0.445, based on 147 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.401 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so even his weaker side is a strength.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.
5 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Jack Dreyer deserved.
Both bars count 161 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
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ERA 3.20 · WHIP 1.10 · BABIP against 0.266 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs RockiesApr 17, 2026score only
7 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs GiantsSep 27, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs YankeesJul 17, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs GiantsMay 12, 2026score only
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs D-backsMar 27, 2026score only
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.8
- Above replacement
- +1.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jack Dreyer
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up, his K% is up, his Barrel% against is up and his GB% against is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.