Jack Dreyer
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Dreyer is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.422 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 86th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (88th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
209 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Jack Dreyer.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Jack Dreyer | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .517 | .528 | 86th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 58th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 27% | 22% | 88th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Jack Dreyer leans on his four-seam fastball (47% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 2.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 83 bases vs a replacement arm's 107 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
12.4 bases saved vs league average, across 832 pitches — 1.5 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Jack Dreyer's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.377 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.357 to 0.398, based on 98 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.405 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.415 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.395 to 0.435, based on 112 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.384 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Jack Dreyer.
over 125 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.91 · WHIP 1.01 · BABIP against 0.246 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RockiesApr 17, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs YankeesJul 17, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs GiantsMay 12, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs D-backsMar 27, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.8
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs MarlinsApr 28, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.6
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jack Dreyer
HR allowed% up, K% up, Barrel% against up, GB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.