Jeremiah Estrada

2026

Padres· RHP · throws R· 20.2 IP· 3.48 ERA· 1.11 WHIP· 82 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

B+74th percentile run prevention

RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Estrada is comfortably above average at preventing runs

The simulator expects 0.423 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 74th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (94th percentile). The soft spot is Command (8th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
82 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Brad KellerPhillies

Kyle BradishOrioles

Mason FluhartyBlue Jays

Carlos RodónYankees

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate, right = better) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against, up = better).
Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Dashed lines mark the league median on each skill.

	Jeremiah Estrada	League	Percentile
Bases per ball in play(fewer = better)	.429	.529	74th
Walk rate(fewer = better)	13%	9%	8th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)	27%	22%	94th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Jeremiah Estrada leans on his four-seam fastball (58% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 2.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+10 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 31 bases vs a replacement arm's 42 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

saved 2.3 per 1006.7 saved across 289

Four-Seam Fastball

58% +1 pts vs '25

95.8 mph · lg 95.1 −2.1 mph vs '25

24% whiffs · lg 18%

saved 2.9 per 1005.4 saved across 186

Splitter

32% +9 pts vs '25

82.2 mph · lg 86.8 −1.5 mph vs '25

47% whiffs · lg 32%

saved 1.3 per 1001.3 saved across 103

Slider

10% −10 pts vs '25

86.0 mph · lg 86.9 −2.5 mph vs '25

—

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

58% vs LHH

57% vs RHH

Splitter

37% vs LHH

27% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB42 PA0.370

vs RHB40 PA0.329

0.2920.3280.3640.4000.436

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.048

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Jeremiah Estrada landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Freddie FreemanHome run

EV 102 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.2

05/19 vs Dodgers

vs Jesus RodriguezHome run

EV 96 mph · LA 26° · EB 1.7

05/05 vs Giants

vs Willy AdamesDouble

EV 83 mph · LA 19° · EB 1.4

03/31 vs Giants

vs Ryan O'HearnOut

EV 96 mph · LA 18° · EB 1.4

04/08 vs Pirates

vs Willy AdamesOut

EV 104 mph · LA 20° · EB 1.2

05/05 vs Giants

Luck check

Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Riley GreeneSingleCheap hit

EV 57 mph · LA -1° · EB 0.1 · xBA .093

03/27 vs Tigers

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
May 29, 2026	Nationals	5 BF · 2 K, 1 H	0.8	+1.7
May 2, 2026	White Sox	3 BF · 3 K	0.0	+1.5
May 13, 2026	Brewers	4 BF · 0 K, 1 H	0.5	+1.5
May 9, 2026	Cardinals	3 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.4
May 22, 2026	Athletics	3 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.3