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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 14, 2026
Padres
7
Final
Guardians
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Padres 88% · tied 6% · Guardians 7%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
5
Est. bases
20.4
13.9
Total bases
21
19
Home runs
2
2
Barrels
4
2
Walks/HBP
6
2
Strikeouts
8
9
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
9
7
Errors
2
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Padres lead on deserved runs by 3.9.

Guardians deserved lead ↑
-50-3.9-2
Padres deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Padres +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Guardians +0.6 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Guardians +1Through inning 3: deserved Guardians +2.3 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning +1.7 deserved runs · actual Guardians +3Through inning 4: deserved Guardians +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Guardians +1Through inning 5: deserved Padres +1.8 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning -3.0 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 6: deserved Padres +2.1 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Padres +1Through inning 7: deserved Padres +3.5 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.5 deserved runs · actual Padres +3Through inning 8: deserved Padres +3.3 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 9: deserved Padres +3.9 (80% band -8.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Padres +2123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGuardians sidePadres side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Padres
Guardians
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Padres
Guardians
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Padrespitching
Michael King6.0 IP · 26 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
1.5 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 5 balls in play worth 6.3 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 24 pitches.

Slider2 thrown (2% tonight, season 5%)
−0.2 bases saved
Yuki Matsui1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (39% tonight, season 38%)
+0.6 bases cost
Jeremiah Estrada1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 1.8 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Splitter9 thrown (50% tonight, season 33%) · 2 whiffs
−0.6 bases saved
Bradgley Rodriguez1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sinker2 thrown (11% tonight, season 25%)
−0.5 bases saved
Guardianspitching
Gavin Williams4.3 IP · 24 BF · 5 K · 4 BB
5.1 bases cost

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 2.3 bases better than average on 29 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.3 expected bases.

Cutter1 thrown (1% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Craig Yoho0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Changeup8 thrown (57% tonight, season 48%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (7% tonight, season 22%)
+0.3 bases cost
Franco Aleman1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.1 expected bases.

Colin Holderman0.7 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
2.7 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.6 expected bases. Overall 2.7 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper5 thrown (36% tonight, season 34%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Tim Herrin1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball3 thrown (33% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (11% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Matt Festa1.3 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Sinker1 thrown (7% tonight, season 7%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Xander Bogaerts hit it

Every ball Xander Bogaerts hit this game, where it landed.

325'407'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA1 H2 BB0 HBP0 K109.4 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 6.3
PA 1 vs Gavin Williams: walkPA 2 vs Gavin Williams: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Craig Yoho: walkPA 4 vs Colin Holderman: out — 0.4 deserved bases
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball40%

0.4 deserved bases on contact

Breaking40%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed20%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Gavin Williams
BB
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.9
Craig Yoho
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Colin Holderman
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.4
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Progressive Field.

Padres29 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
325'407'325'
Guardians28 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
325'407'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Progressive Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information