His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Abetter than 85% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Williams is comfortably above average at limiting bases
The simulator expects him to allow 0.428 bases per batter faced, better than 85% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is getting strikeouts (98th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting hard contact (1st percentile).
His grade rests on 746 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
▸How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.
Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Gavin Williams.
This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Misses bats, but gets hit hard” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski(26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell(29.0%)
▸How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Gavin Williams
League median
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better)
.595
.527
—
Walk rate(lower = better)
8%
9%
64th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)
30%
22%
98th
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.
Gavin Williams mixes his sweeper (29%) and four-seam fastball (27%). His best pitch has been the sweeper, saving 1.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average, with a 44% whiff rate against a league median of 31%.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
▲ +119 bases better than a replacement arm this season
He allowed about 318 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 437 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
Bases vs average
All pitches
He saved 12.3 bases against league average across 2,960 pitches, or 0.4 per 100 pitches.
Lg avg
Sweeper
29%
87.5 mph · RHP median 83.5
44% whiffs · Lg median 31%
saved 1.6 per 10013.5 total
Four-Seam Fastball
27%
97.6 mph · RHP median 95.1
32% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.0 per 1008.2 total
Curveball
23%
82.6 mph · RHP median 81.2
31% whiffs · Lg median 29%
cost 0.8 per 1005.0 total
Sinker
16%
97.0 mph · RHP median 94.7
16% whiffs · Lg median 13%
saved 0.3 per 1001.3 total
Cutter
6%
92.4 mph · RHP median 90.1
25% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 3.3 per 1005.7 total
▸How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.
Mix by batter side
Sweeper
24% vs LHH · RHP median 17%
36% vs RHH · RHP median 29%
Four-Seam Fastball
31% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
23% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Curveball
27% vs LHH · RHP median 18%
16% vs RHH · RHP median 10%
Sinker
11% vs LHH · RHP median 16%
22% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Cutter
8% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
3% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
▸How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 96 and 384 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Gavin Williams's pitch movement, 2026
3 of his 5 pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
Pitch
Risein · vs Lg median
Breakin · vs Lg median
Vs. early season
SweeperST
Rise −2.3 in
−3.4 vs Lg median
Break −12.9 in
+0.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 14.7 in
−1.0 vs Lg median
Break 9.7 in
+2.0 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CurveballCU
Rise −15.7 in
−5.2 vs Lg median
Break −10.4 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
SinkerSI
Rise 9.6 in
+1.3 vs Lg median
Break 14.5 in
−0.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 5.6 in
−2.1 vs Lg median
Break −1.6 in
+0.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page
By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
This section splits his results against lefties and righties.
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.039 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.046
vs LHB447 PA0.442
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.442 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.428 to 0.458, based on 447 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.422 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
Lg median
vs RHB302 PA0.403
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.403 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.387 to 0.418, based on 302 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.446 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Lg median
0.3780.4000.4220.4450.467
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so even his weaker side is a strength.
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Every ball hit off Gavin Williams this season is drawn where it landed.
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.
Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Gavin Williams deserved.
Deserved by the contact he allowed257
Actually credited to batters256
Both bars count 431 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
▸How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.
ERA 3.76 · WHIP 1.11 · BABIP against 0.288 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.
Best games
These are his biggest outings this season.
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
