Matt Waldron
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Waldron sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.454 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 49th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (83rd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (14th percentile).
169 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Matt Waldron.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Matt Waldron | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .527 | .528 | 49th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 83rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 26th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Matt Waldron mixes his knuckle ball (30%) and cutter (20%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 7.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 78 bases vs a replacement arm's 94 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.8 bases cost vs league average, across 616 pitches — 0.3 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Matt Waldron's pitch movement, 2026
His Knuckle Ball and Sweeper have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
* No league median for this pitch — too few pitchers throw it.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.476 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.454 to 0.496, based on 97 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.555 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.555) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.434 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.412 to 0.454, based on 73 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.336 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.336) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 11 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 18 more bases than their contact off Matt Waldron earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 126 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 7.54 · WHIP 1.62 · BABIP against 0.361 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GiantsMay 6, 2026
17 BF · 7 K, 2 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +7.7
- vs RaysAug 18, 2026
10 BF · 1 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.9
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs MarlinsJul 25, 2026
8 BF · 1 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.0
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs Blue JaysJul 11, 2026
12 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.6
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs PhilliesAug 7, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Matt Waldron
HR allowed% up, K% down, Barrel% against down vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.