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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Nick Pivetta

2026
Padres· RHP · throws R· 21.0 IP· 3.43 ERA· 0.95 WHIP· 83 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
B+better than 75% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterComplete Arm

Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.

Pivetta is comfortably above average at preventing runs

The simulator expects 0.437 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 75th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (98th percentile).

83 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Nate LavenderMetsBryan BakerRaysGrant WolframOriolesNolan McLeanMets

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.8%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Nick PivettaLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).556.52775th
Walk rate(lower = better)9%9%62nd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)24%22%86th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Nick Pivetta leans on his four-seam fastball (54% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 2.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+9 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 36 bases vs a replacement arm's 44 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

2.3 bases cost vs league average, across 254 pitches — 0.9 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
54%
94.1 mph · RHP median 95.1
22% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.1 per 1003.8 total
Curveball
21%
79.0 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
saved 2.1 per 1001.5 total
Cutter
not charted
13%
91.1 mph · RHP median 90.2
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
11%
81.7 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—

His cutter and sweeper aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.

Rarely used: sinker, slider (2%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
58% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
48% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 371 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter and sweeper aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.044 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.051

vs LHB47 PA0.432

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.432 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.410 to 0.454, based on 47 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.561 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.561) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB36 PA0.388

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.388 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.367 to 0.411, based on 36 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.221 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.221) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3560.3830.4110.4380.466
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Nick Pivetta landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Kevin McGonigleDouble
EV 106 mph · LA 23° · EB 3.4
03/26 vs Tigers
vs James WoodDouble
EV 114 mph · LA 20° · EB 3.2
09/07 vs Nationals
vs Keibert RuizOutRobbed
EV 99 mph · LA 34° · EB 3.2
09/07 vs Nationals
vs CJ AbramsOutRobbed
EV 93 mph · LA 27° · EB 2.2
09/07 vs Nationals
vs Kevin McGonigleDouble
EV 90 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.9
03/26 vs Tigers

Luck check

Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.

vs Keibert RuizOutRobbed
EV 99 mph · LA 34° · EB 3.2
09/07 vs Nationals

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Henry DavisDoubleCheap hit
EV 90 mph · LA 62° · EB 0.3 · xBA .165
04/07 vs Pirates
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Batters have been credited about 9 fewer bases than their contact off Nick Pivetta earned — his results have run lucky so far.

Earned off his contact allowed28
Actually credited to batters19

over 51 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 3.43 · WHIP 0.95 · BABIP against 0.275 (Lg median 0.287)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Nick Pivetta

HR allowed% down, K% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, Pull% against up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.