Skip to main content
← All games

Padres at Pirates · Apr 7, 2026

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Padres 48% · tied 20% · Pirates 32%

Pirates stole one

Padres did more to deserve the win, but Pirates took it 7–1.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-to-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.