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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Twins at Padres · Aug 22, 2026

Twins
5
Final
Padres
7
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Twins 71% · tied 11% · Padres 19%
How win probability is simulated
  • The simulator replays this game ten thousand times, re-rolling every batted ball from its exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle.
  • Walks, strikeouts and baserunning stay as they happened.
  • The share of replays each team wins is how often it "deserved to win," whatever the real scoreboard said.
  • The gray slice, when there is one, is the share of replays still tied after nine innings.

Team comparison

Both teams' bars grow from the left edge, and longer means more of that stat.

Runs
5
7
Estimated bases
20.6
14.1
Total bases
21
15
Home runs
3
1
Barrels
4
1
Walks/HBP
3
3
Strikeouts
3
9
Double plays hit into
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
8
8
Errors
2
0
How to read this chart
Longer means more of that stat. More is better for runs, bases, home runs, barrels, walks and hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases. More is worse for strikeouts, double plays (GIDP), runners left on base and errors.

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end, the Twins lead on deserved runs by 2.0.

Padres deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2-2.0+2
Twins deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Twins +1.3 (80% band -2.0 to -1.0) · this inning -1.3 deserved runs · actual Twins +1Through inning 2: deserved Twins +1.4 (80% band -3.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Twins +2Through inning 3: deserved Twins +2.5 (80% band -4.0 to -1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Twins +3Through inning 4: deserved Twins +2.8 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Twins +4Through inning 5: deserved Twins +3.0 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Twins +4Through inning 6: deserved Twins +3.0 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Twins +3Through inning 7: deserved Twins +1.4 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.6 deserved runs · actual Padres +1Through inning 8: deserved Twins +1.5 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 9: deserved Twins +2.0 (80% band -6.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Padres +2123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPadres sideTwins side
How to read this chart
The dark line adds up the simulator's “deserved” run differential, one inning at a time. Above the dashed line Padres deserved the lead, and below it Twins did. The darker band holds the middle 50% of simulations and the lighter band holds the middle 80%. The gray steps show the real score. The two numbers on the right are where each line finished.

Batting

Bases created

Bases created are estimated bases on contact plus one base per walk or hit-by-pitch.

Twins
Padres
How to read this chart
Each bar is one hitter, ranked from most bases created to least, and longer is better. The number under a name is his plate appearances (PA). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than a free bench bat would have.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free. Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than that bench bat would have in the same plate appearances. Bars on the “Above replacement” side beat it, and bars on the “Below replacement” side fell short. Because every hitter is measured against his own baseline, a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter share one scale.

Hitter batted-ball luck

Each batter's net luck is his actual bases on contact minus what that contact deserved.

Twins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases, what contact like that usually earns wherever it lands. A bar to the right means he got more than his contact deserved, and a bar to the left means less. Tap a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Bases given up are estimated bases on contact plus one per walk, so lower is better.

Twins
Padres
How to read this chart
Each bar is one pitcher, sorted from most bases given up to least, and shorter is better. The number under a name is the batters he faced (BF). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many bases a pitcher saved compared with a free replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free. Each bar compares a pitcher with that arm facing the same batters, and a bar on the “Better” side means he allowed fewer bases than it would have. Starters and relievers get separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

The two staffs are compared row by row, and the longer bar is the bigger number.

How to read this chart
More is better for the pitchers on every row except walks and earned runs, where lower is better, and batters faced, which only counts the workload. Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see each pitcher’s line.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type earns bases saved or cost against an average pitcher in the same counts.

Twinspitching
Dean Kremer5.1 IP · 22 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
0.1 bases cost

His Slider was his best pitch, 1.8 bases better than average over 29 pitches. Hitters did their damage against his Splitter, with 2 balls in play worth 2.9 expected bases.

Curveball9 thrown (9% in this game, 13% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Slurve2 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
A.J. Minter0.2 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (13% in this game, 28% this season)
0.0 bases
Andrew Morris1.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
2.1 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Four-Seamer, with 4 balls in play worth 3.8 expected bases. Overall, he was 2.1 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Changeup1 thrown (5% in this game, 11% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (5% in this game, 12% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Tommy Nance1.0 IP · 6 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Slider was his best pitch, 1.4 bases better than average over 16 pitches. 5 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Sinker4 thrown (15% in this game, 27% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Padrespitching
Casey Mize2.2 IP · 13 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
6.2 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Slider, with 3 balls in play worth 4.4 expected bases. Overall, he was 6.2 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Sinker1 thrown (2% in this game, 10% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Slurve1 thrown (2% in this game, 4% this season)
−0.1 bases saved
Kyle Hart1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Sinker, with 1 ball in play worth 1.0 expected bases. He threw only 54% of his pitches for strikes.

Griffin Canning3.1 IP · 15 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Changeup was his best pitch, 1.2 bases better than average over 23 pitches. Overall, he was 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cutter6 thrown (13% in this game, 6% this season)
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (2% in this game, 10% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Adrian Morejon1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters.

Changeup3 thrown (30% in this game, 23% this season) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Mason Miller1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases cost

He faced only 3 batters. Hitters did their damage against his Slider, with 1 ball in play worth 2.1 expected bases.

Changeup1 thrown
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against an average pitcher in the same count. A strike, a whiff or weak contact beats that average, and a ball or hard contact falls short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher would allow, and “cost” means more, so saved is better.
  • The “Bases above replacement” board higher up measures the whole outing against a freely available fill-in arm, an easier bar, so the same outing scores a few bases better there.
  • Tap a pitch row to see the balls hit against it.

Pitcher batted-ball luck

Each pitcher's net luck is what his opponents' contact deserved minus the bases it got.

Twins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases on his opponents' contact. A bar to the right means he allowed fewer bases than that contact deserved. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in. Lucky means hard contact found gloves. Tap a pitcher to see his biggest luck swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what he actually did. The cards show every ball he hit or allowed, every pitch he saw or threw, and how he did against each opponent.

Where Luke Keaschall hit it

Each dot is a ball Luke Keaschall hit in this game, drawn where it landed.

336'401'322'
Est. baseslowhigh

Actual vs. deserved bases

He finished 0.7 bases behind what his contact deserved.

5 PA2 H0 BB1 HBP0 K101.6 mph Hardest hit

Bases, running totalActual: 6Deserved: 6.7
PA 1 vs Casey Mize: home run (3.8 deserved bases)PA 2 vs Casey Mize: out (0.0 deserved bases)PA 3 vs Kyle Hart: single (1.0 deserved bases)PA 4 vs Griffin Canning: hit by pitchPA 5 vs Adrian Morejon: out (1.0 deserved bases)
HBP
How to read this chart
The solid line adds up the bases he actually got, one plate appearance at a time. The dashed line adds up what his contact deserved, with estimated bases on balls in play and one base for each walk or hit-by-pitch. When the solid line finishes higher, he got more than his contact earned. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Each bar is his share of pitches seen by type, with the deserved bases he got on contact.

Fastball39%

1.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking39%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed22%

Matchups vs pitchers

Each row shows actual and deserved bases against one opponent, most deserved first.

Casey Mize
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Griffin Canning
HBP
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Adrian Morejon
Actual
0.0
Deserved
1.0
Kyle Hart
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances. BB is a walk, HBP is a hit by pitch, K is a strikeout, and a dot is a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row. More bases is better for a hitter and worse for a pitcher.

Batted balls

These are all the balls put in play in this game, where each one landed, and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Each dot is one ball in play, split by team and drawn on Petco Park.

Twins34 balls in play · 3 walks or hit-by-pitches
336'401'322'
Padres26 balls in play · 3 walks or hit-by-pitches
336'401'322'
Est. baseslowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
A bigger dot was hit harder. Color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate for an easy out to dark teal for home-run territory. Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. The Petco Park outfield wall is drawn from its real dimensions.

The table opens on the game's most valuable batted balls, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Higher estimated bases means better contact. Tap a row for its outcome odds and a Savant video link. Show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution