Casey Mize
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Mize is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.432 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 78th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (89th percentile).
421 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Casey Mize.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Casey Mize | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .510 | .528 | 78th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 89th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 42nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Casey Mize mixes his four-seam fastball (34%) and slider (27%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 181 bases vs a replacement arm's 234 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
11.0 bases saved vs league average, across 1,611 pitches — 0.7 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Casey Mize's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.035 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.026 to +0.043
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.457 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.439 to 0.475, based on 240 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.351 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.351) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.422 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.405 to 0.441, based on 185 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.514 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.514) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040).
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 5 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 10 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 fewer bases than their contact off Casey Mize earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 299 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.44 · WHIP 1.09 · BABIP against 0.270 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs YankeesJun 29, 2026
22 BF · 10 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.0
- Above replacement
- +9.2
- vs Blue JaysMay 16, 2026
19 BF · 4 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.6
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs Red SoxApr 17, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 6.5
- Above replacement
- +6.3
- vs BrewersApr 22, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 3 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.7
- Above replacement
- +6.1
- vs GuardiansMay 21, 2026
24 BF · 4 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.8
- Above replacement
- +5.6
Trends
Multi-season trends · Casey Mize
HR allowed% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.