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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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A.J. Minter

2026
Twins· LHP · throws L· 45.2 IP· 2.56 ERA· 1.05 WHIP· 186 batters faced
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
B+better than 75% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Minter is comfortably above average at limiting bases

The simulator expects him to allow 0.438 bases per batter faced, better than 75% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting walks (97th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting home runs (7th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 186 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with A.J. Minter.

Shota ImanagaCubsFreddy PeraltaRaysTrey YesavageBlue JaysPeyton GrayRangers

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Misses bats, limits hard contact” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 A.J. MinterLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).550.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)6%9%97th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)22%22%61st

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

A.J. Minter leans on his cutter (55% of pitches). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 1.3 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+12 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 85 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 97 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 2.2 bases against league average across 647 pitches, or 0.3 per 100 pitches.

Cutter
55%
89.0 mph · LHP median 88.0
26% whiffs · Lg median 22%
saved 1.3 per 1004.9 total
Four-Seam Fastball
28%
93.5 mph · LHP median 93.5
20% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 4.3 per 1008.1 total
Changeup
13%
86.5 mph · LHP median 85.1
19% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 1.1 per 1001.0 total
Sinker
not charted
4%
93.4 mph · LHP median 92.9
—
—

His sinker isn't in the charts below, because only 30 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Compared with the league, his cutter tilts 16 points more toward lefties.

Cutter
61% vs LHH · LHP median 19%
49% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Four-Seam Fastball
28% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
27% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 41 and 149 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

A.J. Minter's pitch movement, 2026

His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

A.J. Minter's pitch movement, 20260612061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
CutterFC
Rise 3.7 in
−4.0 vs Lg median
Break −3.8 in
−1.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 14.7 in
−1.0 vs Lg median
Break 4.4 in
−3.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 5.7 in
+1.6 vs Lg median
Break 14.8 in
+0.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His sinker isn't in these charts, because only 30 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.038 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047

vs LHB92 PA0.430

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.430 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.410 to 0.451, based on 92 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.420 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB95 PA0.468

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.468 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.448 to 0.488, based on 95 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.476 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.4000.4250.4490.4730.498
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off A.J. Minter this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Angel MartínezHome run
106 mph · 28° · worth 3.8 bases
09/11 vs Guardians
vs Aaron JudgeHome run
104 mph · 36° · worth 3.7 bases
09/14 vs Yankees
vs Elias DíazHome run
104 mph · 33° · worth 3.7 bases
09/27 vs Rangers
vs Alec BohmHome run
107 mph · 23° · worth 3.6 bases
07/19 vs Phillies
vs Matt OlsonHome run
104 mph · 34° · worth 3.5 bases
07/03 vs Braves

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Jimmy CrooksOutLucky out
104 mph · 28° · worth 2.4 bases
06/11 vs Cardinals
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off A.J. Minter deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed75
Actually credited to batters76

Both bars count 136 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 2.56 · WHIP 1.05 · BABIP against 0.244 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · A.J. Minter

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is down and his K% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.