A.J. Minter
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Minter is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.426 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 84th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (99th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (20th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
128 batters faced · data through 2026-08-23.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with A.J. Minter.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| A.J. Minter | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .471 | .527 | 84th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 5% | 9% | 99th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 51st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
A.J. Minter leans on his cutter (56% of pitches). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 3.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 52 bases vs a replacement arm's 66 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.3 bases saved vs league average, across 390 pitches — 0.8 per 100.
His changeup and sinker aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
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Mix by batter side
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A.J. Minter's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His changeup and sinker aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.435 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.413 to 0.456, based on 64 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.450 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.459 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.473 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.493, based on 65 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.337 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.441 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.337) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off A.J. Minter.
over 97 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 1.95 · WHIP 0.96 · BABIP against 0.239 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PhilliesJun 27, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs CubsJun 24, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs BravesJul 6, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs RedsMay 26, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs PadresJun 7, 2026
4 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · A.J. Minter
HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.