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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Brewers

2026
#3 of 30Elite· .597 vs. an average team· team strength
Record
103-59 .636
xRecord · simulator
93-69 +10.5 vs expected
Grade · runs scored / allowed
OffenseA+·PitchingA

Snapshot

Three cards cover the record, the run differential and how lucky the team has been.
Identity
Brewers103-59

The offense is elite on discipline and bottom-tier on power. The pitching is elite on strikeouts and average on command.

Run differential
+214 run diff

They score 5.1 runs a game and allow 3.8, against a league average of 4.5. The pitching is the bigger reason.

Luck
10.5 wins above expected

The simulator says their game-by-game play deserved 92.5 wins. They have 103.

Team identity

See where the team ranks among all 30 on runs and on four hitting and pitching rates.

Offense style

This lineup uses the whole field and keeps the ball on the ground.

These strips compare how this lineup hits the ball with the other 29 teams. Pull rate and fly-ball rate are a style, not a skill, but a higher barrel rate is better.

Pull rate34.7% · 30th of 30 · Uses the whole field
34.7%43.5%
Fly-ball rate19.4% · 30th of 30 · Hits it on the ground
19.4%26.0%
Barrel rate6.7% · 22nd of 30 · Average
5.2%8.8%
Brewersone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter with 25 or more plate appearances is ranked here, with a 50% probable range.

This lineup is balanced. Its top 3 hitters account for +501 bases above replacement, and the other 14 combine for +759.

Hitters by estimated bases per plate appearance (EB/PA)

Lg median
(0.430)
  1. 1Jake Bauers578 PA0.540
  2. 2Gary Sánchez275 PA0.501
  3. 3Christian Yelich500 PA0.476
  4. 4William Contreras640 PA0.471
  5. 5Brice Turang680 PA0.463
  6. 6Andrew Vaughn331 PA0.463
  7. 7Jackson Chourio573 PA0.458
  8. 8Garrett Mitchell531 PA0.449
  9. 9Luis Lara212 PA0.416
  10. 10Luis Rengifo354 PA0.410
  11. 11Tyler Black28 PA0.410
  12. 12Cooper Pratt266 PA0.407
  13. 13Sal Frelick384 PA0.390
  14. 14David Hamilton387 PA0.374
  15. 15Joey Ortiz415 PA0.372
  16. 16Blake Perkins101 PA0.366
  17. 17Brandon Lockridge113 PA0.354
0.3330.4210.5100.5980.687
← WorseBetter →
Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.687)
How to read this chart
  • The dot is the simulator's best estimate. The bar around it covers the middle 50% of where that estimate could land. A short bar means a lot of evidence, and a long one means the sample is still thin.
  • Where two players' bars overlap, the simulator cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their ranks are.
  • The tinted halves split at the dashed league median, with the better side green and the worse side red.
  • The dashed median and the teal league-best line cover the whole league, not just these players.
  • Click any player to open his page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Davis Schneider (18.6%)HR% Hunter Goodman (7.1%)

A bigger dot means more strikeouts, which is worse for a hitter.

How to read this chart
  • Each face is one player on this roster, with BB% across the bottom and HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
  • Higher is better on both, so the best hitters sit top-right.
  • The dashed lines are the league-wide rates this season, so a corner means better or worse than the league, not than a teammate.
  • Tap a headshot to open the player.
  • The league best is named above the chart, among hitters with 50 or more plate appearances. More on the About page

4 more hitters have fewer than 25 plate appearances, too few to rank:

Pitchers

Every pitcher with 40 or more batters faced is ranked here, with a 50% probable range.

This staff is star-led. Its top 3 pitchers account for +179 bases above replacement, and the other 15 combine for +150.

Pitchers by estimated bases allowed per plate appearance (xEB/PA)

Lg median
(0.454)
  1. 1Jacob Misiorowski665 BF0.367
  2. 2Trevor Megill242 BF0.398
  3. 3Logan Henderson371 BF0.408
  4. 4Aaron Ashby383 BF0.413
  5. 5Abner Uribe234 BF0.414
  6. 6Brandon Woodruff174 BF0.424
  7. 7Bryse Wilson151 BF0.441
  8. 8Kyle Harrison505 BF0.443
  9. 9DL Hall241 BF0.447
  10. 10Shane Drohan528 BF0.449
  11. 11Grant Anderson235 BF0.452
  12. 12Jake Woodford134 BF0.454
  13. 13Robert Gasser463 BF0.459
  14. 14Carlos Rodriguez42 BF0.461
  15. 15Chad Patrick441 BF0.466
  16. 16Angel Zerpa55 BF0.468
  17. 17Coleman Crow85 BF0.469
  18. 18Brandon Sproat422 BF0.476
0.3570.3900.4220.4550.488
← BetterWorse →
Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.367)
How to read this chart
  • The dot is the simulator's best estimate. The bar around it covers the middle 50% of where that estimate could land. A short bar means a lot of evidence, and a long one means the sample is still thin.
  • Where two players' bars overlap, the simulator cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their ranks are.
  • The tinted halves split at the dashed league median, with the better side green and the worse side red.
  • The dashed median and the teal league-best line cover the whole league, not just these players.
  • Click any player to open his page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.7%)HR% allowed Blake Snell (0.0%)

A bigger dot means more strikeouts, which is better for a pitcher.

How to read this chart
  • Each face is one player on this roster, with BB% allowed across the bottom and HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
  • Lower is better on both, so the best pitchers sit bottom-left.
  • The dashed lines are the league-wide rates this season, so a corner means better or worse than the league, not than a teammate.
  • Tap a headshot to open the player.
  • The league best is named above the chart, among pitchers with 100 or more batters faced. More on the About page

5 more pitchers have fewer than 40 batters faced, too few to rank:

Season value

This puts every ranked hitter and pitcher on one scale, bases above replacement.
+1589
bases above replacement · 4th of 30 teams · from 17 hitters and 18 pitchers

Who carried the team

Bars to the right helped the team more than a replacement player would have.

Above replacement
Below replacement
Replacement level
How to read this chart
  • Each bar is one hitter's bat or one pitcher's arm, measured in bases above or below a freely available replacement player. Longer to the right is better. The tag marks the role: Hitter, Starter or Reliever.
  • The rates behind each bar are the simulator's estimates, the same ones the rankings above use, and a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
  • The total adds up the whole roster, while this board shows the 10 biggest gains and the 6 biggest drags. Click a name for his page.

Recent games

Recent games

These are the team's last 10 games. Playoff games are included and tagged Postseason. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Brewers games →