Carlos Rodriguez

2026

Brewers· RHP · throws R· 9.1 IP· 3.86 ERA· 1.50 WHIP· 42 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F21st percentile run prevention

StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Rodriguez is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.495 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 21st percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (99th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (9th percentile).

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
42 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Sam AldegheriAngels

Tyler KinleyBraves

Ryan JohnsonAngels

Jonathan HernándezDodgers

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Carlos Rodriguez mixes his changeup (37%) and cutter (27%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the changeup has come closest, with a 43% whiff rate.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+3 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 22 bases vs a replacement arm's 25 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 6.1 per 1004.1 cost across 67

Changeup

37% +15 pts vs '25

87.7 mph · lg 87.2 +1.6 mph vs '25

43% whiffs · lg 29%

cost 6.1 per 1004.1 cost across 67

Cutter

27% +6 pts vs '25

90.1 mph · lg 90.1 +1.4 mph vs '25

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Four-Seam Fastball

27% +1 pts vs '25

94.1 mph · lg 95.1 +0.2 mph vs '25

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Sweeper

82.2 mph · lg 83.5

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Rarely used: curveball (1%)

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB19 PA0.501

Raw vs LHB rate (0.765) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB23 PA0.459

Raw vs RHB rate (0.282) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3920.4280.4650.5010.537

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Carlos Rodriguez landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
May 24, 2026	Dodgers	8 BF · 0 K, 2 BB	3.3	+0.8
Apr 19, 2026	Marlins	8 BF · 3 K, 2 H	3.3	+0.7
May 30, 2026	Astros	17 BF · 3 K, 2 BB, 5 H	9.6	+0.6
Apr 22, 2026	Tigers	9 BF · 2 K, 3 H, 1 HR	4.9	-0.3