Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All pitchers·All hitters

Carlos Rodriguez

2026
Brewers· RHP · throws R· 9.1 IP· 3.86 ERA· 1.50 WHIP· 42 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Dbetter than 36% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Rodriguez has been below average at limiting damage

The simulator expects 0.463 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 36th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (90th percentile).

42 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Luis SeverinoAthleticsTyler KinleyTigersAndrew NardiMarlinsMason AdamsRockies

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Carlos Rodriguez mixes his changeup (37%) and cutter (27%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the changeup has come closest, with a 43% whiff rate.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+1 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 21 bases vs a replacement arm's 22 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

4.1 bases cost vs league average, across 67 pitches — 6.1 per 100.

Changeup
37%
87.7 mph · RHP median 87.1
43% whiffs · Lg median 30%
cost 6.1 per 1004.1 total
Cutter
not charted
27%
90.1 mph · RHP median 90.2
—
—
Four-Seam Fastball
not charted
27%
94.1 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
8%
82.2 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—

Only his changeup is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Rarely used: curveball (1%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his changeup is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.044 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.052

vs LHB19 PA0.481

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.481 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.460 to 0.504, based on 19 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.765 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.765) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB23 PA0.438

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.438 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.460, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.282 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.282) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4050.4330.4600.4870.515
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Carlos Rodriguez landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Kerry CarpenterHome run
EV 98 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.6
04/22 vs Tigers
vs Yordan AlvarezSingle
EV 115 mph · LA 17° · EB 2.1
05/30 vs Astros
vs Liam HicksDouble
EV 100 mph · LA 13° · EB 2.0
04/19 vs Marlins
vs Isaac ParedesDouble
EV 84 mph · LA 19° · EB 2.0
05/30 vs Astros
vs Kyle StowersSingle
EV 98 mph · LA 12° · EB 1.2
04/19 vs Marlins
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Carlos Rodriguez

HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.