Chad Patrick
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Patrick sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.450 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 55th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (76th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
372 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Chad Patrick.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Chad Patrick | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .512 | .528 | 55th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 45th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 49th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Chad Patrick mixes his cutter (43%) and four-seam fastball (25%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 0.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 30% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 165 bases vs a replacement arm's 191 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.8 bases saved vs league average, across 1,472 pitches — 0.3 per 100.
Rarely used: changeup (1%)
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Mix by batter side
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Chad Patrick's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.481 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.463 to 0.500, based on 192 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.483 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.441 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.423 to 0.460, based on 182 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.411 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.411) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 8 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 12 fewer bases than their contact off Chad Patrick earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 253 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.26 · WHIP 1.21 · BABIP against 0.274 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs Blue JaysApr 15, 2026
24 BF · 2 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.9
- Above replacement
- +5.5
- vs RoyalsApr 4, 2026
20 BF · 3 K, 3 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.4
- Above replacement
- +3.7
- vs GuardiansJun 17, 2026
12 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.1
- Above replacement
- +3.1
- vs TwinsMay 16, 2026
13 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.6
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs YankeesMay 9, 2026
10 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.1
- Above replacement
- +3.0
Trends
Multi-season trends · Chad Patrick
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.