Aaron Ashby
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Ashby is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.410 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 93rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (96th percentile). The soft spot is Command (19th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
315 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Aaron Ashby.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Aaron Ashby | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .425 | .528 | 93rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 19th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 28% | 22% | 96th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Aaron Ashby leans on his sinker (52% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 5.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 57% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 110 bases vs a replacement arm's 162 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
34.6 bases saved vs league average, across 1,269 pitches — 2.7 per 100.
Rarely used: four-seam fastball (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Aaron Ashby's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 3 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.361 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.341 to 0.381, based on 121 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.303 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.303) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.401 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.381 to 0.420, based on 194 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.392 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 8 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 13 more bases than their contact off Aaron Ashby earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 176 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.25 · WHIP 1.39 · BABIP against 0.345 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PiratesApr 25, 2026
7 BF · 4 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs PhilliesJun 14, 2026
7 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs NationalsMay 1, 2026
12 BF · 4 K, 2 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.5
- Above replacement
- +2.6
- vs MetsJul 22, 2026
7 BF · 4 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs DodgersAug 15, 2026
8 BF · 2 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 2.0
- Above replacement
- +2.1
Trends
Multi-season trends · Aaron Ashby
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% up, Barrel% against up, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.