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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Brewers at Nationals · May 1, 2026

Brewers
6
Final
Nationals
1
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Brewers 90% · tied 5% · Nationals 5%

Brewers earned it

Brewers deserved to win and did, beating Nationals 6-1.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.