Angel Zerpa

2026

Brewers· LHP · throws L· 12.2 IP· 6.39 ERA· 1.74 WHIP· 55 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F14th percentile run prevention

RelieverHittable Strike-Thrower

Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.

Zerpa is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.508 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 14th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (2nd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
55 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Patrick CorbinBlue Jays

Michael LorenzenRockies

Justin TopaTwins

Jose QuintanaRockies

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Angel Zerpa leans on his sinker (68% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sinker has come closest, and his sinker runs 2.4 mph above the league norm.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 29 bases vs a replacement arm's 28 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 0.5 per 1000.8 cost across 147

Sinker

68% +24 pts vs '25

95.6 mph · lg 93.2 −1.0 mph vs '25

14% whiffs · lg 11%

cost 0.6 per 1000.8 cost across 147

Slider

21% −11 pts vs '25

87.1 mph · lg 85.9 +2.0 mph vs '25

—

Changeup

6% +2 pts vs '25

90.3 mph · lg 85.1 −0.5 mph vs '25

—

Four-Seam Fastball

5% −15 pts vs '25

95.4 mph · lg 93.5 −0.8 mph vs '25

—

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Sinker

65% vs LHH

70% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB21 PA0.475

Raw vs LHB rate (0.241) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB35 PA0.514

Raw vs RHB rate (0.672) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3900.4310.4710.5120.552

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.049

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Angel Zerpa landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Jahmai JonesHome run

EV 112 mph · LA 24° · EB 3.8

04/23 vs Tigers

vs Willson ContrerasHome run

EV 105 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.8

04/06 vs Red Sox

vs Austin HaysDouble

EV 112 mph · LA 11° · EB 1.5

03/28 vs White Sox

vs Jacob YoungDouble

EV 94 mph · LA 25° · EB 1.2

04/10 vs Nationals

vs Brady HouseSingle

EV 83 mph · LA 17° · EB 1.0

04/12 vs Nationals

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Bryan ReynoldsSingleCheap hit

EV 102 mph · LA -20° · EB 0.1 · xBA .097

04/25 vs Pirates

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Mar 30, 2026	Rays	3 BF · 2 K	0.0	+1.5
Apr 17, 2026	Marlins	6 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 2 H	2.1	+0.9
Apr 25, 2026	Pirates	4 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H	1.2	+0.8
Apr 5, 2026	Royals	6 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H	2.2	+0.8
Apr 14, 2026	Blue Jays	3 BF · 1 K, 1 H	0.7	+0.8