Angel Zerpa
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Zerpa is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.471 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 26th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (12th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
55 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Angel Zerpa leans on his sinker (68% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sinker has come closest, and his sinker runs 2.6 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 28 bases vs a replacement arm's 28 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
0.8 bases cost vs league average, across 147 pitches — 0.5 per 100.
Only his sinker is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 20 points more toward righties.
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Angel Zerpa's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his sinker is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.456 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.432 to 0.478, based on 21 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.241 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.241) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.495 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.473 to 0.517, based on 35 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.672 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.672) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RaysMar 30, 2026score only
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs MarlinsApr 17, 2026score only
6 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.1
- Above replacement
- +1.0
- vs RoyalsApr 5, 2026score only
6 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.2
- Above replacement
- +0.9
- vs PiratesApr 25, 2026score only
4 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +0.9
- vs Blue JaysApr 14, 2026score only
3 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +0.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Angel Zerpa
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.