Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.
Civale is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.547 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 4th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (81st percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (8th percentile).
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 396 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled.
327 batters faced · data through 2026-07-09.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
What kind of contact he gives up, and what it turns into.
Top bar: the contact he allows (grounders, liners, fly balls, pop-ups). The thin bar below is league average.
Below, the rates hitters put up against him — each dot is his mark, the dashed line league median, the teal tick league’s best. Further right is better.
Hover or tab any bar or dot for exact values. Starred rows (*) are approximate.
Ground ballsLine drivesFly ballsPop-ups
GB 33%
LD 24%
FB 30%
PU 14%
League average
BABIP against
.332
lg .287best .129
AVG against*
.306
lg .238best .103
OBP against*
.357
lg .317best .153
SLG against*
.525
lg .386best .133
OPS against*
.882
lg .706best .337
WHIP
1.58
lg 1.30best 0.62
ERA
5.10
lg 3.92best 0.56
* Approximate: sacrifice flies and bunts aren't distinguishable in our data, so every ball in play counts as an at-bat. Slightly off official figures.
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
“Times through the order” = how many times a hitter has faced Aaron Civale in the same game (1st, 2nd, or 3rd-plus time up).
Pitchers often fade the third time through, as hitters get more looks at their stuff.
Career splits: K% (higher is better), BB% (lower), and EB/PA — contact allowed per plate appearance (lower).
Whiskers show the uncertainty range. The 3rd-plus bucket has the fewest plate appearances, so its wider whiskers are expected.
The dashed line is the league average per bucket, so you can see if his drop-off is steeper or flatter than typical.
Strikeout rate (K%) (higher is better)
Walk rate (BB%) (lower is better)
EB / PA (lower is better)
The third time through, Aaron Civale allows 0.068 more estimated bases per plate appearance than the first time (0.348 → 0.416) and his strikeout rate falls from 26.0% to 14.3%.
Pooled over 115 games · 2,396 batters faced · 2022–2026
Trends
Multi-season trends · Aaron Civale
xEB/PA
Expected bases allowed per plate appearance — lower = stronger run prevention
HR allowed%
Home runs allowed per plate appearance — lower = better
BB%
Walks per plate appearance — lower = better command
K%
Strikeouts per plate appearance — higher = more swing-and-miss
