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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Tyler Black

2026
Brewers· DH · bats L · throws R· 28 PA

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 29% of hitters at creating bases

He's running below his established level this season — there's room to rebound.

Still Searching

Below league average across the board.

Soft contact is the story so far

Nothing stands out yet — even Tyler Black's best mark (strikeout rate) beats only 34% of qualified hitters. The contact is soft — only 5% of qualified hitters hit the ball with less authority. Early-season read — only 28 plate appearances so far.

28 plate appearances · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 519 qualified hitters — 50+ plate appearances. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the hitters whose profile looks most like this one.

Osleivis BasabeGiantsTyler CallihanPiratesBryan TorresCardinalsDaniel SchneemannGuardians

Hitter type

What kind of hitter he is, next to the league

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

Better vs RHP than vs LHP by 0.078 EB/PA (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.054 to +0.104

vs LHP1 PA0.356

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.356 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.326 to 0.390, based on 1 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.100 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.426 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHP rate (0.100) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHP27 PA0.433

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.433 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.407 to 0.459, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.345 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.3100.3510.3920.4340.475
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty bat (median 0.078). Against lefties he sits below the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

He sits in the league's bottom quarter vs lefties and the league's middle half vs righties.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all hitters against that hand.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.

How he hits

What happens when he puts a ball in play

He hits the ball up the middle most often, but does his most damage to the pull side.

Best batted balls

Where every ball Tyler Black put in play landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jonathan LoáisigaDouble
EV 99 mph · LA 24° · EB 3.0
04/30 vs D-backs
vs Jake IrvinDouble
EV 96 mph · LA 25° · EB 1.3
05/01 vs Nationals
vs Merrill KellySingle
EV 82 mph · LA 12° · EB 0.9
04/28 vs D-backs
vs Mitch KellerSingle
EV 69 mph · LA 36° · EB 0.7
04/25 vs Pirates
vs Andre PallanteOut
EV 93 mph · LA 16° · EB 0.6
05/06 vs Cardinals

Luck check

4 lucky hits — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass.

vs Andrew HoffmannSingleLucky
EV 65 mph · LA 49° · EB 0.0 · xBA .019
04/28 vs D-backs
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest games this year

Best games

His best games this season by bases above replacement.

Multi-season trends · Tyler Black

BB% down, K% down vs his previous season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.