Trevor Megill
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Megill is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.392 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 98th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (99th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (21st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
193 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Trevor Megill.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Trevor Megill | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .364 | .528 | 98th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 80th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 26% | 22% | 90th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Trevor Megill leans on his four-seam fastball (64% of pitches). His best pitch has been the knuckle curve, saving 6.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 48% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 59 bases vs a replacement arm's 99 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
30.7 bases saved vs league average, across 707 pitches — 4.3 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Trevor Megill's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.394 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.372 to 0.415, based on 85 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.281 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.281) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.355 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.332 to 0.376, based on 108 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.313 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.313) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 9 fewer bases than their contact off Trevor Megill earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 123 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.34 · WHIP 0.82 · BABIP against 0.236 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PadresAug 12, 2026
6 BF · 0 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs CubsJun 28, 2026
4 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs TigersApr 21, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs CubsMay 19, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs PadresMay 12, 2026
5 BF · 3 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Trevor Megill
HR allowed% down, BB% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against up, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.