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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Brewers at Reds · Sep 4, 2026

Brewers
10
Final
Reds
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Brewers 47% · tied 13% · Reds 40%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
10
7
Est. bases
16.1
15.6
Total bases
20
15
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
1
3
Walks/HBP
6
5
Strikeouts
11
11
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
2
1
Left on base
9
4
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Brewers lead on deserved runs by 0.3.

Reds deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4-0.3-3
Brewers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Reds +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 2: deserved Reds +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 3: deserved Reds +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Reds +2Through inning 4: deserved Reds +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Reds +2Through inning 5: deserved Reds +0.0 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Brewers +3Through inning 6: deserved Brewers +0.2 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Brewers +4Through inning 7: deserved Reds +0.1 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Brewers +3Through inning 8: deserved Reds +0.2 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Brewers +3Through inning 9: deserved Brewers +0.3 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Brewers +3123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualReds sideBrewers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Brewers
Reds
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Brewers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Brewers
Reds
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Brewerspitching
Shane Drohan4.0 IP · 18 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
3.6 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 7.1 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 22 pitches.

Changeup4 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%)
+0.2 bases cost
Chad Patrick2.0 IP · 9 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
1.1 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Four-Seamer11 thrown (27% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Antonio Senzatela1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.1 expected bases.

Aaron Ashby1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sinker7 thrown (37% tonight, season 52%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Slider4 thrown (21% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (11% tonight, season 12%)
+0.1 bases cost
Trevor Megill1.0 IP · 3 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Knuckle Curve did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Four-Seamer11 thrown (55% tonight, season 63%) · 1 whiff
−0.7 bases saved
Knuckle Curve9 thrown (45% tonight, season 37%) · 3 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Redspitching
Rhett Lowder4.0 IP · 23 BF · 2 K · 4 BB
2.8 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 6 balls in play worth 4.6 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 32 pitches.

Changeup20 thrown (19% tonight, season 21%)
+1.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Sam Moll1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.0 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Sinker8 thrown (32% tonight, season 37%)
−0.4 bases saved
Four-Seamer3 thrown (12% tonight, season 12%)
+0.2 bases cost
Luis Mey1.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

4 of his 5 whiffs came on the Sinker.

Slider6 thrown (25% tonight, season 38%)
0.0 bases
Pierce Johnson1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases cost

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Tejay Antone1.0 IP · 4 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

About an average night — −1.2 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sweeper10 thrown (63% tonight, season 54%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Cutter3 thrown (19% tonight, season 17%) · 2 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 5%)
−0.1 bases saved
Julian Garcia1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Slider3 thrown (19% tonight, season 16%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper3 thrown (19% tonight, season 54%)
+0.4 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Brewers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Eugenio Suárez hit it

Every ball Eugenio Suárez hit this game, where it landed.

328'412'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K105.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.9
PA 1 vs Shane Drohan: walkPA 2 vs Shane Drohan: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Chad Patrick: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 4 vs Aaron Ashby: out — 0.0 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking52%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Fastball43%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed5%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Shane Drohan
BB
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.9
Chad Patrick
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
Aaron Ashby
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Great American Ball Park.

Brewers29 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
Reds22 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Great American Ball Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information