Pierce Johnson
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Johnson is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.471 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 25th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (22nd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
161 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Pierce Johnson.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Pierce Johnson | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .621 | .528 | 25th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 39th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 60th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Pierce Johnson leans on his curveball (64% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the curveball has come closest, and his curveball runs 5.4 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 85 bases vs a replacement arm's 83 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
11.1 bases cost vs league average, across 637 pitches — 1.7 per 100.
Rarely used: cutter (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Pierce Johnson's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.501 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.481 to 0.521, based on 75 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.524 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.461 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.441 to 0.482, based on 86 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.520 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 9 fewer bases than their contact off Pierce Johnson earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 112 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.58 · WHIP 1.34 · BABIP against 0.274 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs CardinalsMay 23, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs AstrosMay 8, 2026
6 BF · 2 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs CardinalsAug 17, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.8
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs PiratesJun 26, 2026
3 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs White SoxAug 11, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Pierce Johnson
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Hard-hit% against down, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.