Julian Garcia
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Garcia sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.452 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 53rd percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (13th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
121 batters faced · data through 2026-08-24.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Julian Garcia.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Julian Garcia | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .482 | .528 | 53rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 24th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 60th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Julian Garcia leans on his sweeper (55% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 4.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 50 bases vs a replacement arm's 62 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.8 bases saved vs league average, across 491 pitches — 0.8 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Julian Garcia's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.481 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.460 to 0.503, based on 66 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.365 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.453 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.365) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.442 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.420 to 0.463, based on 57 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.474 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.439 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Julian Garcia.
over 77 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.51 · WHIP 0.87 · BABIP against 0.139 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarlinsAug 16, 2026
7 BF · 4 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +3.1
- vs RockiesJul 18, 2026
9 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs GiantsAug 24, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs OriolesJul 4, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs BrewersJun 23, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 2 BB
- Bases allowed
- 2.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5