Bryse Wilson
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Wilson is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.434 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 76th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (99th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (16th percentile).
128 batters faced · data through 2026-08-24.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Bryse Wilson.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Bryse Wilson | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .538 | .528 | 76th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 3% | 9% | 99th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 23rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Bryse Wilson mixes his cutter (35%) and sinker (31%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 4.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 57 bases vs a replacement arm's 72 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
4.2 bases saved vs league average, across 397 pitches — 1.1 per 100.
His changeup and curveball aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Bryse Wilson's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His changeup and curveball aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.467 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.446 to 0.489, based on 59 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.514 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.453 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.514) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.426 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.406 to 0.449, based on 69 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.383 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.439 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.383) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Bryse Wilson.
over 98 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.25 · WHIP 1.35 · BABIP against 0.368 (Lg median 0.287)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TwinsAug 7, 2026
10 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +3.3
- vs PiratesJul 12, 2026
10 BF · 4 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +3.2
- vs BrewersJun 28, 2026
17 BF · 4 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.6
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs RockiesJul 26, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs DodgersAug 14, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Bryse Wilson
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% up, Barrel% against down, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.