Red Sox

2026

#5 of 30Elite· .561 true win%· modeled team strength

Record

72-59 .550

xRecord · simulator

71-60 +1.4 vs expected

Grade · runs scored / allowed

OffenseC+·PitchingA

Snapshot

Record, run differential and luck

Identity

Red Sox72-59

Offense: Strong contact, bottom-tier quality. Pitching: Elite quiet contact, average strikeouts.

Run differential

+101 run diff

Score 4.5/g, allow 3.8/g — run prevention carries them.

Sim vs. results

1.4 wins above expected

The simulator expected 70.6 wins from their game-by-game play; they have 72.

Team identity

Rank of 30 on empirical rates

Offense style

No strong stylistic lean

How this lineup attacks — direction, trajectory, and contact quality against the other 29 teams. Style, not skill.

Pull rate39.3% · 19th of 30 · Balanced spray

34.8%43.4%

Fly-ball rate22.9% · 17th of 30 · Mixed

19.6%26.5%

Barrel rate6.7% · 21st of 30 · Average thump

5.4%8.8%

Red Soxone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter, with a 50% probable range

Star-led: the top 3 hitters account for +358 bases above replacement; the other 16 combine for +420.

Every hitter, ranked by contact quality (EB/PA)

← WorseBetter →

Lg avg
(0.438)

0.3450.4340.5220.6110.700

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.700)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Will Wagner (22.2%)HR% Joshua Báez (9.8%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% across the bottom, HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Pitchers

Every pitcher, with a 50% probable range

Star-led: the top 3 pitchers account for +100 bases above replacement; the other 18 combine for +23.

Every pitcher, ranked by run prevention (xEB/PA)

← BetterWorse →

Lg avg
(0.456)

0.3650.3980.4310.4650.498

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.365)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.3%)HR% allowed Mason Miller (0.0%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts recorded).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% allowed across the bottom, HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few batters faced to rank (4):

Season value

Every bat and arm on one bases-above-replacement scale

+901

bases above replacement · 12th of 30 teams · from 19 hitters and 21 pitchers

Who carried the team

Hitters create bases, pitchers prevent them — one roster on one replacement scale.

Above replacement

Willson Contreras Hitter

Ceddanne Rafaela Hitter

Masataka Yoshida Hitter

Payton Tolle Starter

Roman Anthony Hitter

Andruw Monasterio Hitter

Sonny Gray Starter

Below replacement

Jovani Morán Reliever

-11

Danny Coulombe Reliever

-10

Patrick Sandoval Reliever

-9

Garrett Crochet Reliever

-5

Aroldis Chapman Reliever

-5

Tyler Samaniego Reliever

-4

How to read this chart

Every hitter's bat and every pitcher's arm, both measured against a freely-available replacement. The tag marks the role (Hitter / Starter / Reliever).
Modeled (shrunk) rates, like the boards above — a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total sums the whole roster; this board shows the biggest movers. Click a name for their page.

Recent games

The team's last 10 games. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Red Sox games →