Zack Kelly
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Kelly has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.465 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 34th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (71st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
71 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Zack Kelly mixes his cutter (44%) and sweeper (22%). His best pitch has been the sweeper, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 32 bases vs a replacement arm's 37 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.5 bases cost vs league average, across 186 pitches — 0.8 per 100.
Only his cutter and sweeper are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
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Mix by batter side
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Zack Kelly's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his cutter and sweeper are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.478 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.457 to 0.501, based on 21 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.655 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.655) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.435 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.412 to 0.456, based on 50 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.374 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.374) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs AstrosMay 1, 2026score only
6 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs TigersApr 20, 2026score only
6 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs YankeesApr 22, 2026score only
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs PadresApr 4, 2026score only
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs PhilliesMay 12, 2026score only
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Zack Kelly
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.