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May 1, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Astros 87% · tied 6% · Red Sox 7%

Red Sox stole one

Astros did more to deserve the win, but Red Sox took it 3–1.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.