Brayan Bello
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Bello is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 20th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (75th percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (13th percentile).
385 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Brayan Bello.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Brayan Bello | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .555 | .528 | 20th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 75th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 13th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Brayan Bello mixes his sinker (41%) and changeup (19%). His best pitch has been the sweeper, saving 1.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 188 bases vs a replacement arm's 214 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
15.3 bases cost vs league average, across 1,428 pitches — 1.1 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Brayan Bello's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 5 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.493 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.475 to 0.511, based on 215 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.580 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.580) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.450 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.431 to 0.468, based on 170 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.389 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.389) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 6 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 13 fewer bases than their contact off Brayan Bello earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 286 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.69 · WHIP 1.40 · BABIP against 0.309 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TigersMay 5, 2026
25 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.8
- Above replacement
- +7.1
- vs GuardiansMay 29, 2026
24 BF · 5 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.3
- Above replacement
- +5.1
- vs OriolesJul 22, 2026
21 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 4 H, 2 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 7.0
- Above replacement
- +4.7
- vs TwinsMay 23, 2026
24 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 8 H
- Bases allowed
- 9.5
- Above replacement
- +3.9
- vs DodgersJul 31, 2026
16 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.2
- Above replacement
- +3.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Brayan Bello
HR allowed% up, BB% down, FB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.