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Payton Tolle

2026
Red Sox· LHP · throws L· 120.0 IP· 3.08 ERA· 1.08 WHIP· 483 BF
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Grade

How good he's been, and at what
A+better than 95% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterComplete Arm

Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.

Tolle is among the league's best at preventing damage

The simulator expects 0.401 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 95th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (91st percentile).

483 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 464 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Payton Tolle.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Payton TolleLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).469.52895th
Walk rate(lower = better)7%9%79th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)26%22%90th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Payton Tolle leans on his four-seam fastball (46% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.5 mph above the league norm.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+88 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 181 bases vs a replacement arm's 269 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

37.7 bases saved vs league average, across 1,811 pitches — 2.1 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
46%
96.1 mph · LHP median 93.6
28% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.4 per 10011.8 total
Sinker
22%
95.0 mph · LHP median 93.1
15% whiffs · Lg median 13%
saved 2.9 per 10011.4 total
Cutter
20%
88.6 mph · LHP median 88.1
29% whiffs · Lg median 22%
saved 2.8 per 10010.1 total
Curveball
9%
82.8 mph · LHP median 79.9
46% whiffs · Lg median 29%
saved 2.9 per 1004.9 total
Changeup
3%
88.6 mph · LHP median 85.0
cost 0.8 per 1000.5 total
How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
36% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
49% vs RHH · LHP median 40%
Sinker
31% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
19% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Cutter
24% vs LHH · LHP median 21%
18% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Curveball
9% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
10% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 34 and 127 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Payton Tolle's pitch movement, 2026

His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 4 have not.

Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.

Payton Tolle's pitch movement, 2026012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 15.7 in
0.0 vs Lg median
Break 9.3 in
+1.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 10.5 in
+2.2 vs Lg median
Break 16.0 in
+0.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 7.3 in
−0.2 vs Lg median
Break −2.0 in
+0.1 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CurveballCU
Rise −4.3 in
+5.8 vs Lg median
Break −6.8 in
+1.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 2.2 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Break 10.5 in
−3.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.027 to +0.045

vs LHB141 PA0.369

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.369 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.351 to 0.388, based on 141 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.395 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.

vs RHB343 PA0.406

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.406 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.390 to 0.424, based on 343 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.367 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.

0.3390.3710.4030.4340.466
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Payton Tolle landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Batters have been credited about 18 more bases than their contact off Payton Tolle earned — his results have run unlucky so far.

Earned off his contact allowed145
Actually credited to batters163

over 310 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 3.08 · WHIP 1.08 · BABIP against 0.283 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Payton Tolle

xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, BB% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.