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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 12, 2026
Cubs
8
Final
Reds
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cubs 21% · tied 13% · Reds 66%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
8
4
Est. bases
12.7
17.7
Total bases
16
13
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
0
3
Walks/HBP
5
3
Strikeouts
7
6
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
5
8
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Reds lead on deserved runs by 0.7.

Reds deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+0.7-4
Cubs deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cubs +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · actual Cubs +2Through inning 2: deserved Cubs +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · actual Cubs +2Through inning 3: deserved Reds +3.1 (80% band +2.0 to +4.0) · actual Reds +2Through inning 4: deserved Reds +1.8 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Reds +1.7 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Reds +1.8 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Reds +0.0 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · actual Cubs +4Through inning 8: deserved Reds +0.0 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · actual Cubs +4Through inning 9: deserved Reds +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · actual Cubs +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualReds sideCubs side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Cubs
Reds
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Cubs
Reds
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cubspitching
Matthew Boyd6.3 IP · 28 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
3.4 bases cost

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 27 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 10 balls in play worth 10.3 expected bases.

Gavin Hollowell1.7 IP · 6 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
2.2 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 11 pitches. Overall 2.2 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper11 thrown (44% tonight, season 33%) · 2 whiffs
−1.0 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (12% tonight, season 9%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (8% tonight, season 36%)
+0.1 bases cost
Caleb Thielbar0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
2.3 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Slider2 thrown (17% tonight, season 21%)
0.0 bases
Jacob Webb0.7 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Slider3 thrown (33% tonight, season 9%)
−0.2 bases saved
Redspitching
Andrew Abbott4.0 IP · 19 BF · 3 K · 3 BB
1.4 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.1 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Cutter3 thrown
+0.2 bases cost
Chase Petty2.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 8 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup5 thrown (20% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Sweeper5 thrown (20% tonight, season 18%)
+0.3 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (4% tonight, season 9%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sam Moll0.3 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Sweeper3 thrown (20% tonight, season 36%)
0.0 bases
Changeup2 thrown (13% tonight, season 16%)
+0.1 bases cost
Pierce Johnson0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.9 expected bases.

Rhett Lowder2.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 11 pitches. Struggled to find the zone (53% strikes).

Four-Seamer7 thrown (23% tonight, season 21%)
+0.5 bases cost
Changeup5 thrown (17% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Michael Busch hit it

Every ball Michael Busch hit this game, where it landed.

328'412'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −1.0 bases behind deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP1 K96.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 5.0
PA 1 vs Andrew Abbott: double — 2.6 deserved basesPA 2 vs Andrew Abbott: double — 2.3 deserved basesPA 3 vs Chase Petty: strikeoutPA 4 vs Pierce Johnson: out — 0.1 deserved bases
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball59%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Breaking29%

4.8 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed12%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Andrew Abbott
Actual
4.0
Deserved
4.8
Pierce Johnson
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
Chase Petty
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Great American Ball Park.

Cubs28 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
Reds30 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Great American Ball Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information