Caleb Thielbar
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Thielbar has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.461 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 37th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (81st percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (2nd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
165 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Caleb Thielbar.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Caleb Thielbar | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .684 | .528 | 37th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 54th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 81st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Caleb Thielbar mixes his four-seam fastball (40%) and curveball (26%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 0.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 87 bases vs a replacement arm's 85 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.8 bases cost vs league average, across 669 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his curveball tilts 19 points more toward righties.
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Caleb Thielbar's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.408 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.386 to 0.428, based on 66 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.467 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.447 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.425 to 0.467, based on 98 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.560 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.560) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Caleb Thielbar.
over 105 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.35 · WHIP 1.32 · BABIP against 0.284 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RockiesJun 10, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs MetsApr 19, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs PiratesApr 11, 2026
5 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs MetsJun 25, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs GiantsJun 5, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Caleb Thielbar
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% up, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.