Matthew Boyd
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Boyd is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.471 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 25th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (72nd percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (26th percentile).
381 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Matthew Boyd.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Matthew Boyd | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .546 | .528 | 25th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 72nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 26th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Matthew Boyd leans on his four-seam fastball (46% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 1.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 180 bases vs a replacement arm's 212 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
12.6 bases cost vs league average, across 1,410 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
Rarely used: sinker (1%)
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his slider tilts 16 points more toward lefties.
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Matthew Boyd's pitch movement, 2026
His Curveball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 3 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.442 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.424 to 0.462, based on 103 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.458 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.481 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.463 to 0.500, based on 280 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.493 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 6 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 10 fewer bases than their contact off Matthew Boyd earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 275 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.15 · WHIP 1.24 · BABIP against 0.272 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PiratesJul 24, 2026
29 BF · 4 K, 3 BB, 7 H
- Bases allowed
- 9.2
- Above replacement
- +6.9
- vs AngelsApr 1, 2026
20 BF · 10 K, 2 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.5
- Above replacement
- +6.7
- vs PhilliesApr 22, 2026
19 BF · 5 K, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.5
- Above replacement
- +5.1
- vs OriolesJul 7, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 3 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.3
- Above replacement
- +4.5
- vs TwinsJul 18, 2026
21 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 8.2
- Above replacement
- +3.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Matthew Boyd
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, FB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.