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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Dodgers at Reds · Sep 16, 2026

Dodgers
2
Final
Reds
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Dodgers 5% · tied 5% · Reds 90%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
6
Est. bases
7.6
19.8
Total bases
8
20
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
0
3
Walks/HBP
8
4
Strikeouts
10
6
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
1
Left on base
12
7
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Reds lead on deserved runs by 4.4.

Reds deserved lead ↑
0+2+4+6+8+4.4+4
Dodgers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Dodgers +0.0 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Dodgers +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Reds +0.9 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 4: deserved Reds +1.6 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 5: deserved Reds +2.3 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Reds +2Through inning 6: deserved Reds +2.5 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Reds +2Through inning 7: deserved Reds +5.0 (80% band +1.0 to +9.0) · this inning +2.5 deserved runs · actual Reds +4Through inning 8: deserved Reds +4.4 (80% band +1.0 to +8.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Reds +4Through inning 9: deserved Reds +4.4 (80% band +1.0 to +8.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Reds +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualReds sideDodgers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Dodgers
Reds
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Dodgers
Reds
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Dodgerspitching
Blake Snell1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer8 thrown (42% tonight, season 49%)
−0.2 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (5% tonight, season 11%)
0.0 bases
Blake Treinen1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Cutter2 thrown (13% tonight, season 10%)
0.0 bases
Seth Halvorsen1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
2.9 bases cost

The Splitter got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.2 expected bases. Overall 2.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker4 thrown
−0.3 bases saved
Bobby Miller2.3 IP · 11 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.8 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 21 pitches.

Changeup3 thrown
+0.6 bases cost
Sinker3 thrown (6% tonight, season 28%)
+0.5 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (4% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Alex Vesia0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Changeup2 thrown (12% tonight, season 14%)
+0.2 bases cost
Jack Dreyer1.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
3.4 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.5 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (41% strikes).

Kris Bubic1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Four-Seamer9 thrown (47% tonight, season 41%) · 3 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (11% tonight, season 13%)
0.0 bases
Redspitching
Andrew Abbott4.7 IP · 22 BF · 5 K · 5 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 20 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 3 balls in play worth 1.5 expected bases.

Cutter10 thrown · 2 whiffs
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball8 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Julian Garcia1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Slider5 thrown (24% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
+0.4 bases cost
Tejay Antone0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

Faced only 1 batter.

Brock Burke1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Graham Ashcraft1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.2 bases saved

About an average night — −0.2 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Cutter14 thrown (64% tonight, season 54%) · 1 whiff
+0.4 bases cost
Emilio Pagán1.0 IP · 4 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Cutter5 thrown (24% tonight, season 19%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Splitter2 thrown (10% tonight, season 18%)
+0.2 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Elly De La Cruz hit it

Every ball Elly De La Cruz hit this game, where it landed.

328'412'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.4 bases behind deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K106.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.4
PA 1 vs Blake Snell: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs Seth Halvorsen: home run — 3.7 deserved basesPA 3 vs Bobby Miller: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 4 vs Jack Dreyer: walk
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking65%

0.8 deserved bases on contact

Fastball18%
Offspeed18%

3.7 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Seth Halvorsen
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.7
Jack Dreyer
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Bobby Miller
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.4
Blake Snell
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.4
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Great American Ball Park.

Dodgers23 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
Reds27 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Great American Ball Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information