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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cubs at Marlins · Sep 6, 2026

Cubs
3
Final
Marlins
10
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cubs 21% · tied 11% · Marlins 68%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
10
Est. bases
13.3
14.6
Total bases
12
17
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
3
7
Strikeouts
6
5
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
0
3
Left on base
5
7
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Marlins lead on deserved runs by 1.9.

Marlins deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+1.9+7
Cubs deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cubs +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Marlins +0.0 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 3: deserved Cubs +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1Through inning 4: deserved Marlins +0.5 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1Through inning 5: deserved Marlins +1.5 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Marlins +5Through inning 6: deserved Marlins +1.5 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +5Through inning 7: deserved Marlins +2.4 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Marlins +7Through inning 8: deserved Marlins +2.2 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Marlins +7Through inning 9: deserved Marlins +1.9 (80% band -2.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Marlins +7123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualMarlins sideCubs side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Cubs
Marlins
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Cubs
Marlins
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cubspitching
Clay Holmes4.3 IP · 23 BF · 2 K · 3 BB
2.7 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 10 balls in play worth 6.0 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 18 pitches.

Colin Rea2.7 IP · 15 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases cost

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 11 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.4 expected bases.

Curveball4 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
+0.4 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (5% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Daniel Palencia1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Splitter2 thrown (13% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 26%)
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown
+0.2 bases cost
Marlinspitching
Tyler Phillips5.0 IP · 20 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
2.1 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 4 balls in play worth 6.0 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 23 pitches.

Victor Vodnik1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (38% tonight, season 47%)
−0.1 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 15%)
+0.1 bases cost
Josh Ekness1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sweeper4 thrown (27% tonight, season 26%)
0.0 bases
Cade Gibson1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Sweeper5 thrown (28% tonight, season 28%)
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (17% tonight, season 7%)
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (11% tonight, season 4%)
+0.3 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (11% tonight, season 16%)
+0.1 bases cost
Jack Ralston1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Splitter6 thrown (26% tonight, season 65%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Slider6 thrown (26% tonight, season 26%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Heriberto Hernández hit it

Every ball Heriberto Hernández hit this game, where it landed.

344'422'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.3 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K101.5 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 4.7
PA 1 vs Clay Holmes: walkPA 2 vs Clay Holmes: home run — 3.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Clay Holmes: single — 0.4 deserved basesPA 4 vs Colin Rea: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Daniel Palencia: out — 0.2 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball94%

3.7 deserved bases on contact

Breaking6%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Clay Holmes
BB
Actual
6.0
Deserved
4.5
Daniel Palencia
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
Colin Rea
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on loanDepot park.

Cubs26 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
344'422'335'
Marlins29 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
344'422'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. loanDepot park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information