Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All pitchers·All hitters

Clay Holmes

2026
Cubs· RHP · throws R· 101.1 IP· 3.29 ERA· 1.19 WHIP· 419 batters faced
Compare

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
B+better than 72% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Holmes is comfortably above average at limiting bases

The simulator expects him to allow 0.441 bases per batter faced, better than 72% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting home runs (91st percentile). His weakest skill is limiting hard contact (25th percentile).

His grade rests on 419 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Clay Holmes.

Bryse WilsonBrewersHuascar BrazobánWhite SoxTaj BradleyTwinsKade AndersonMariners

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Clay HolmesLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).430.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)10%9%34th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)20%22%28th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Clay Holmes leans on his sinker (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 2.2 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+76 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 170 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 246 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 18.5 bases against league average across 1,596 pitches, or 1.2 per 100 pitches.

Sinker
49%
93.1 mph · RHP median 94.7
12% whiffs · Lg median 13%
saved 1.5 per 10011.5 total
Sweeper
19%
81.3 mph · RHP median 83.5
30% whiffs · Lg median 31%
saved 1.9 per 1005.6 total
Changeup
14%
88.0 mph · RHP median 87.1
32% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 1.2 per 1002.8 total
Cutter
10%
86.1 mph · RHP median 90.1
39% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 2.3 per 1003.8 total
Curveball
7%
81.1 mph · RHP median 81.2
28% whiffs · Lg median 29%
saved 2.2 per 1002.4 total

He rarely throws his four-seam fastball (1% of his pitches).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 17 points more toward lefties.

Sinker
49% vs LHH · RHP median 16%
49% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Sweeper
16% vs LHH · RHP median 17%
24% vs RHH · RHP median 29%
Cutter
5% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
19% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
Curveball
8% vs LHH · RHP median 18%
5% vs RHH · RHP median 10%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 96 and 213 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Clay Holmes's pitch movement, 2026

His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 4 have not.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Clay Holmes's pitch movement, 2026-12012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SinkerSI
Rise 2.4 in
−5.9 vs Lg median
Break 16.5 in
+1.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SweeperST
Rise −3.4 in
−4.5 vs Lg median
Break −16.7 in
−2.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise −0.8 in
−4.9 vs Lg median
Break 10.1 in
−4.1 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise −3.6 in
−11.3 vs Lg median
Break −1.5 in
+0.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
CurveballCU
Rise −13.8 in
−3.3 vs Lg median
Break −9.2 in
−0.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049

vs LHB259 PA0.453

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.453 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.435 to 0.470, based on 259 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.421 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB160 PA0.411

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.411 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.394 to 0.429, based on 160 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.386 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.3850.4080.4320.4550.479
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042).

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Clay Holmes this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Byron BuxtonHome run
108 mph · 25° · worth 3.7 bases
04/22 vs Twins
vs Jac CaglianoneHome run
112 mph · 24° · worth 3.4 bases
08/08 vs Royals
vs Nolan GormanHome run
110 mph · 39° · worth 3.3 bases
03/30 vs Cardinals
vs Hyeseong KimHome run
99 mph · 27° · worth 3.2 bases
04/15 vs Dodgers
vs Heriberto HernándezHome run
101 mph · 36° · worth 3.1 bases
09/06 vs Marlins

Luck check

3 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Gabriel MorenoOutLucky out
99 mph · 25° · worth 2.5 bases
05/09 vs D-backs
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 15 fewer bases than their contact off Clay Holmes deserved, so his results have been lucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed127
Actually credited to batters112

Both bars count 295 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 3.29 · WHIP 1.19 · BABIP against 0.253 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Clay Holmes

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down and his Barrel% against is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.