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Otto Lopez

2026
Marlins· SS · bats R · throws R· 546 PA
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Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Cbetter than 41% of hitters at creating bases

His season is in line with his established level.

Free-Swinging Contact

Bat-to-ball first, seldom walks, light power.

One of the toughest bats to strike out

Otto Lopez rarely strikes out — less often than 95% of qualified hitters. Walks are scarce, though — only 13% of qualified hitters draw them less often.

546 plate appearances · data through 2026-08-22.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 499 qualified hitters — 50+ plate appearances.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Otto Lopez.

Marcus SemienMetsBrett SullivanRockiesCole YoungMarinersMax ClarkTigers

Hitter type

What kind of hitter he is, next to the league

Hitter type

Patient hitter with above-average pop.

How to read this chart
Two skills separate hitting styles: not giving away at-bats (walk rate minus strikeout rate) and squaring the ball up when he does put it in play (hard-hit rate). Every dot is a qualified hitter this season; dot size tracks plate appearances. Click any dot to open that hitter's page.
 Otto LopezLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better).450.50841st
Walk rate(higher = better)5%8%13th
Strikeout rate(lower = better)13%23%95th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

Better vs LHP than vs RHP by 0.027 EB/PA (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.008 to +0.044

vs LHP125 PA0.444

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.444 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.424 to 0.465, based on 125 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.416 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.425 EB/PA.

vs RHP423 PA0.416

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.416 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.400 to 0.432, based on 423 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.424 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.436 EB/PA.

0.3920.4120.4320.4520.472
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty bat (median 0.034). Against righties he sits below the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

He sits in the league's middle half vs both lefties and righties.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all hitters against that hand.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.

How he hits

What happens when he puts a ball in play

He hits the ball up the middle most often, but does his most damage to the pull side.

Best batted balls

Where every ball Otto Lopez put in play landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Miles MikolasHome run
EV 107 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.8
06/02 vs Nationals
vs Jordan LeasureHome run
EV 103 mph · LA 29° · EB 3.8
04/01 vs White Sox
vs Mason BarnettHome run
EV 106 mph · LA 30° · EB 3.7
07/05 vs Athletics
vs Cole WinnHome run
EV 106 mph · LA 23° · EB 3.3
06/24 vs Rangers
vs Anthony NunezHome run
EV 107 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.1
05/05 vs Orioles

Luck check

Robbed 3 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in a glove.

vs Shane DrohanOutRobbed
EV 102 mph · LA 27° · EB 2.7
07/18 vs Brewers

25 lucky hits — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass.

vs Aaron NolaSingleLucky
EV 70 mph · LA -7° · EB 0.1 · xBA .058
05/04 vs Phillies
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Performance by pitch type

2026 · 1,994 pitches

Bases he adds per 100 pitches of each type, against the league.

← below leagueabove league →
Four-Seam Fastball (450 pitches)
+2.5
Lg median −0.4Lg best +12.9
Sinker (378 pitches)
+1.6
Lg median −1.3Lg best +10.4
Slider (344 pitches)
−0.7
Lg median −0.5Lg best +13.2
Sweeper (221 pitches)
−1.0
Lg median −0.3Lg best +21.9
Changeup (218 pitches)
−6.0
Lg median −0.3Lg best +17.9
Cutter (164 pitches)
−5.2
Lg median −0.3Lg best +16.7
Curveball (114 pitches)
−3.0
Lg median +0.5Lg best +14.6
Splitter (62 pitches)
−1.7
Lg median −0.7Lg best +12.6
Other (43 pitches)

−3.1 bases per 100 · no single-type league comparison

Above league medianBelowMiddle half of the leagueLg medianLg best
How to read this chart
Bases added per 100 pitches of each type — the same scale as the pitcher pages’ “saved/cost per 100”, from the hitter’s side. Every pitch counts: taking a ball adds value, whiffing loses it, and the pitch that ends the plate appearance scores its outcome against the count’s expectation. Values are bases vs the league count-average: +3.5 means his results against that pitch have been worth about 3.5 extra bases per 100 seen. Types with fewer than 50 pitches seen pool into “Other”.

Earned vs. actual

Otto Lopez has been credited about 24 more bases than his contact earned — his results have run fortunate so far.

Earned off his own contact200
Actually credited to him224

over 445 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball he puts in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases he was actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Swing

How fast he swings, and what he changes with two strikes. League tracking starts in 2024.

Swing at a glance

2026 · data through 2026-08-22
Bat speed · 850 swings
70.9 mph
Lg median 71.1 mph
Slowest: S. Kwan (61.9 mph)Fastest: J. Caminero (78.7 mph)
Lg median

Swings about as fast as most hitters. His swing is shorter than most hitters', with a flatter attack angle than most. Cuts his swing down about as much as most hitters with two strikes. His bat travels on a fairly typical path.

Attack angle
4.9°
Lg median 9.4°
Swing length
6.7 ft
Lg median 7.3 ft
Swing path tilt
29.4°
Lg median 31.6°
Middle half of the league
How to read this chart
  • Competitive swings: bunts and checked-type swings under 50 mph are excluded, so these numbers sit a touch below the bat speeds Savant publishes, which use a different cut.
  • League tracking starts in 2024, and early 2024 has small gaps — about 93% of swings that season have a reading.
  • Swing length — how far the sweet spot of the bat travels during the swing.
  • Attack angle — the bat’s upward or downward tilt through the zone.
  • Swing path tilt — how steep the bat’s path is.
  • None of these is better or worse on its own — swing style trades power against contact (the fastest and slowest swings in the league both belong to stars).

Timing

Early or late, over or under — how his swing meets the pitch. Tracking starts mid-2023.

Timing at a glance

2026 · data through 2026-08-22
Perfect contact · 877 swings
25.4%
Lg median 22.6%Lg best 39.4%
On-time swings
63.5%
Lg median 64.5%Lg best 79.1%
Miss distance on whiffs
3.9 in
Lg median 3.0 inLg best 1.0 in

Squares the ball up about as often as most hitters. When his timing is off, it's usually early — about 12 ms ahead of perfect timing. When he misses vertically, it's more often under the ball than over it. More of his mishits come from reaching at pitches away from him than from getting tied up inside.

Middle half of the league
How to read this chart
  • Perfect contact — a swing that is centered (barrel within 4 inches of the ball horizontally), on time (within 7 milliseconds of ideal timing), and lined up (within 2 inches vertically), all at once. A swing missing any of the three counts as flawed.
  • Miss distance — on swings and misses only: how far the barrel half of the bat passed from the ball, in inches.
  • Timing numbers are Savant’s season-to-date figures. Switch hitters have both sides combined — no side-by-side timing split exists.
  • League comparisons cover hitters with 100+ tracked swings this season. Tracking starts in July 2023.

How he sets up

Where he stands in the box and how his feet are set, next to the league-average setup.

How he sets up

A typical setup — close to league average in depth, off-plate distance, width, and angle.

Top-down batting stance vs league averagePitcher ↑

Month by month this season, from his setup about a second before each pitch.

Middle half of the leagueLg median
His feetLg avg
How to read this chart
  • Overhead view of the batter’s box. The dots are his feet, reconstructed from Statcast’s stance measurements — hip position, foot separation, and stance angle — about one second before the pitch. It’s an approximation of his setup, not his stride or swing.
  • Open means his front foot is pulled off the line to the plate; closed means it steps toward it. The average hitter sets up slightly open.
  • The change line above only appears for a sustained month-over-month move that clears normal Statcast noise by a wide margin.
  • The chart is his month-by-month average for whichever measure you pick, this season only. A month needs 25 tracked swings to appear, so an injured or platooned month can be missing. The shaded band and dashed line are where the middle half of hitters, and the median hitter, sat over their whole season.
  • On the angle chart, below zero is an open stance and above zero is a closed one — hover a point (or drag on a phone) and it says which in words.
  • Data through 2026-08-22.

Best games

His biggest games this year

Best games

His best games this season by bases above replacement.

Multi-season trends · Otto Lopez

HR% down, BB% down, Barrel% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.