Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 5, 2026
Marlins
9
Final
Athletics
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Marlins 99% · tied 1% · Athletics 1%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
8
Est. bases
24.6
10.8
Total bases
33
12
Home runs
4
1
Barrels
6
2
Walks/HBP
10
3
Strikeouts
4
10
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
14
1
Errors
0
1

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Marlins
Athletics
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Marlins
Athletics
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marlinspitching
Eury Pérez7.0 IP · 21 BF · 8 K · 0 BB
7.2 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 4.0 bases better than average on 34 pitches. 4 of his 12 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider18 thrown (20% tonight, season 16%) · 3 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Lake Bachar0.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
5.4 bases cost

Struggled to find the zone (50% strikes). Overall 5.4 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider4 thrown (15% tonight, season 24%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball3 thrown (12% tonight, season 17%)
+0.3 bases cost
Michael Petersen1.0 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Four-Seamer8 thrown (89% tonight, season 61%) · 2 whiffs
−0.6 bases saved
Pete Fairbanks1.0 IP · 7 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Changeup1 thrown
0.0 bases
Athleticspitching
Gage Jump3.0 IP · 21 BF · 1 K · 3 BB
6.0 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases. 3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Slider.

Sinker4 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%)
+0.8 bases cost
Mason Barnett2.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
3.2 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 5 balls in play worth 5.4 expected bases. Overall 3.2 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball1 thrown (3% tonight, season 10%)
+0.2 bases cost
Justin Sterner1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.5 expected bases. Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper5 thrown (29% tonight, season 30%)
−0.1 bases saved
Hogan Harris1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

About an average night — −0.2 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Curveball6 thrown (35% tonight, season 27%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Luis Medina1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Changeup6 thrown (29% tonight, season 14%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Sinker6 thrown (29% tonight, season 26%)
+0.2 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (5% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Elvis Alvarado1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (25% tonight, season 59%)
0.0 bases
Splitter2 thrown (7% tonight, season 4%)
+0.3 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Otto Lopez hit it

Every ball Otto Lopez hit this game, where it landed.

330'406'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

6 PA3 H1 BB0 HBP0 K106.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 8Deserved: 8.0
PA 1 vs Gage Jump: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs Gage Jump: double — 0.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Gage Jump: out — 2.1 deserved basesPA 4 vs Mason Barnett: home run — 3.6 deserved basesPA 5 vs Hogan Harris: walkPA 6 vs Elvis Alvarado: single — 0.1 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball56%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking41%

2.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed3%

0.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Mason Barnett
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.6
Gage Jump
Actual
2.0
Deserved
3.3
Hogan Harris
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Elvis Alvarado
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Sutter Health Park.

Marlins36 BIP · 10 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
Athletics23 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Sutter Health Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information