Justin Sterner
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Sterner sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.446 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 62nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (70th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (3rd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
184 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Justin Sterner.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Justin Sterner | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .551 | .528 | 62nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 70th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 53rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Justin Sterner mixes his four-seam fastball (40%) and cutter (31%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 1.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 31% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 85 bases vs a replacement arm's 95 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.1 bases cost vs league average, across 726 pitches — 0.7 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Justin Sterner's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.470 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.448 to 0.489, based on 87 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.411 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.432 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.411 to 0.452, based on 97 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.498 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 8 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 12 more bases than their contact off Justin Sterner earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 129 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.12 · WHIP 1.38 · BABIP against 0.286 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs White SoxApr 17, 2026
8 BF · 4 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +3.1
- vs MarinersApr 22, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs MarinersMay 26, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs RangersApr 26, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs PiratesJun 16, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.6
Trends
Multi-season trends · Justin Sterner
HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% down, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against up, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.