Michael Petersen
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Petersen is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.430 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 79th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (74th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (29th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
216 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Michael Petersen.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Michael Petersen | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .467 | .528 | 79th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 32nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 26% | 22% | 74th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Michael Petersen leans on his four-seam fastball (61% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 2.4 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.8 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 82 bases vs a replacement arm's 111 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
13.9 bases saved vs league average, across 902 pitches — 1.5 per 100.
Rarely used: sinker (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Michael Petersen's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider and Changeup have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.420 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.400 to 0.439, based on 133 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.421 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.380 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.359 to 0.400, based on 86 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.333 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.333) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Michael Petersen.
over 128 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.54 · WHIP 1.09 · BABIP against 0.252 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PiratesJun 13, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs BravesApr 14, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs MetsMay 24, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs PiratesAug 11, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs PhilliesJun 17, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Michael Petersen
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% up, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.